A Strategic Research On The Industry Evolution And China's Choice Of Leading Industrys In The Fifth Long Wave

In the process of a long wave industry evolution, some countries, by adopting the correct development strategies and policies, have grasped the opportunity to realize a successive development of leading sectors, thereby becoming an industrial leading country. On the contrary, some other countries in the meanwhile develop quite slowly or even stagnate, which widens the gap between them and the leading countries. This phenomenon in the long wave deserves our deep thinking. In the times of the fifth long wave, China, as a latecomer in economic development, faces the same question. That is how to grasp the opportunity in the long wave evolution to achieve the goal of "overtaking", and the key point here is the choice of industry evolution modes and the leading sectors. By studying on the American industries in the fifth long wave, this paper tries to explain the situation of industry evolution in the current fifth long wave as well as its influence on economic development. In the next section, with a view to the similarity between China's current development and Japan's situation in the fourth long wave, the paper analyzes the industry evolution of Japan in the fourth and fifth long wave, and sums up the mode of Japan's industry evolution. Subsequently, on the basis of explaining China's current situation of industry evolution, the paper has put forward an appropriate mode of China's industry evolution. The key element in this evolution mode is to realize our "overtaking" strategy by developing our economy from both technological and industrial aspects. From technological side, China should introduce and develop the technology in the new technology system of the fifth long wave, thereby making strides in technology and upgrading the technological system. Then from the industrial point of view, different strategies should be taken to develop all clusters of leading sectors that were established in the latest three long waves simultaneously; thus maintaining a smooth and continuous growth in industry and carrying out a rapid upgrade of industrial structure.In the last section, the paper, in light of the long wave theory, has established a leading sector selection model in order to select the leading sectors that call for fostering and support. In addition, this paper also offers suggestions on the different policies that are adopted to the selected leading sectors.