Economic Crisis And The Study Of Early-Warning Index System

Anything of the world can not happen or develop like beeline, and the development of economy can not go along as stably as possible. Economic Crisis, which is a phenomenon of the macro-economics, is one of the most inevitable phenomena. The history of the economic development indicates that any economic system will appear serious wave and crisis in the course of its movement. Many economists have made comprehensive and profound researches and acquired abundant achievements in the field of Economic Crisis. During the shunt period of Chinese, market-economy has made rapid developments. But at the same time, the factors of crisis have been accumulating. In order to abate or avoid the serious destroys, the Early-Warning index system of Economic Crisis must be constituted. By this means, we can predict the serious danger of the economic movement and take fast actions to father.The article contains four chapters:First, several concepts are defined. I introduce three concepts, such as Business Cycle, Economic Crisis and the cycle of Economic Crisis, so that we can comprehend the characters of Economic Crisis and realize its serious destroys.Second, seven economists parsed Economic Crisis. In this chapter, I introduce he seven theories generally. I try my best to find out the main factors and conductive course of Economic Crisis, so that I can coordinate relevant indexes to lay a frame and foundation.Third, the factors and indexes of Economic Crisis are coordinated. On one hand, I introduce the theory of system and the concept of equipoise simply, and summarize the destroys of Economic Crisis. On the other hand, I classify the factors of Economic Crisis. Some are economic factors, others are noneconomic factors .So 1 can generalize total product index and net product index to enter into the system of economy. 1 want to probe into the indexes of Economic Crisis.Fourth, the Early-Warning index system of Economic Crisis is established. This chapter is the hard core of the article. On one hand, I introduce the four developed phases of the Early-Warning index system of Economic Crisis. On the other hand, I scheme out the Early-Warning indexsystem of Economic Crisis. The clue is the factors of Economic Crisis. The key is the selection of indexes and the watchful limit. To sum up, I would like to offer some useful suggestions for Chinese stahle development.