Systematical Study On The Economic Efficiency Evaluation In The Extension Projects Estimation

At the moment, many traditional industry items are facing the problem of extension because they are not able to meet the request of market economy development due to the old equipments and technique. Aiming at this kind of circumstance, this thesis studies the basic principles and methods of financial economy evaluation and national economy evaluation of extension projects deeply and evaluates the extension projects with new mathematic analysis model.This thesis makes use of the grey absolute degree of incidence analysis method to compare comprehensive economic efficiency of investment schemes of extension projects and select the best scheme, through introducing the grey system theories into economic evaluation of the extension projects, combining the quantitative analysis and the qualitative analysis, and considering comprehensively various economic indexes of extension projects.This method avoids the weakness of making decision only with an economic evaluation index by seting evaluation standard from samples directly and evaluating sample data according to their intrinsic relations.This thesis adopts the grey fixed weight clustering method to analyze and gain the efficiency grade of the best scheme.According to the prediction function of Model GM(1,1) , this thesis predicts the unit cost of extension projects and indexes of implement schemes, taking the development coefficient and the prediction value as the standard and chooses the best implement scheme. On the basis of dynamic state ,Model GM(1,1) sets out from the angle of the dynamic state development and evaluates the economic efficiency of each implement scheme by estimating unknown data value from the index data value at the moment, this method has the maneuverability and practicability.In uncertain analysis, this thesis discusses the merits and shortcomings among the breakeven analysis, the sensitivity analysis and the probabilistic analysis and evaluates each scheme's economic risk with the analytical hierarchy process(AHP) according to influence of the various uncertain factors on the economic targets. Easy to calculation ,this method has its practical value in real work.