Emergy Input-output Analysis And Prediction Of Agricultural System In Jiangsu Province

The agricultural ecological-economic system in Jiangsu Province is main study object of this thesis. In this thesis, the input-output and sustainable development conditions of agrosystem in Jiangsu Province are assessed, and main influential factors of agricultural development are analysed. Meanwhile, the contribution rate of agricultural machinery input to agricultural development is calculated and discussed. Finally, the development of agriculture in the near future is predicted and some advice is put forward.The emergy input-output time series of agricultural system in Jiangsu Province are calculated, which is able to fill a gap of static emergy analysis. It suggests from a series of emergy assessment indices that the agricultural system of Jiangsu Province, whose emergy input-output structure is rational, is being in the period of modern agriculture and better sustainable development conditions.When analysing main influential factors of agricultural development in Jiangsu Province with the emergy input-output time series, Missing Value Analysis, Factor Analysis and Regression are applied synthetically, which can avoid the distortion of the multiple regression model. Then, the contribution rate of agricultural machinery input to agricultural output is calculated with Cobb-Douglas production function. It indicates that the education of peasants, fertilizer input, electrification and mechanization of agriculture are main driving factors, while the labor input has negative correlation to the development of agriculture and the price of agricultural products in last year has obvious effect on the agricultural production of that year.Chaos predicted method and integrative predicted method of chaos and neural network are applying to the development of agriculture, which may raise the prediction accuracy. It is predicted that the planting output of Jiangsu Province will rise from the bottom of 2003 and the animal husbandry will increase smoothly, while the forestry and the fishery will develop quickly. The total emergy output of agriculture in Jiangsu Province in 2004 and 2005 will reach about 2180×10²⁰sej and more than 2250×10²⁰sej separately. Finally, some suggestions are proposed.