System Dynamic Simulation Study On The Coordinated Development Of Economic-Resource-Environment: An Example Of Jiangsu Province

Since last century, the concept of sustainable development has been brought forward, however, it is still popular all around the world. Our country bringing forward China's Agenda makes clear that China is keeping a stiff upper lip when carrying sustainable development into execution. Coordinated development of Economic-Resource-Environment (Ec-Re-En) is the stick point of sustainable development. If we study sustainable development in a region, it will has more significance. Jiangsu province is one of the rapid economic growth provinces in our country. The rapid economic growth result in the short of resource and the environment pollution. The government put forward time after time that it is very important for Jiangsu to promote the entironment construction. Research on sustainable development should adopt scientific methods. This paper combines qualitative analysis with quantitative analysis.Coordinated development of Ec-Re-En in a region refers to building the collaboration, cooperation relationship among the Ec-Re-En system and the subsystems to promote and develop a good situation of society and to achieve sustainable development in a region.This paper applies the method of system dynamics to the research of the coordinated development of Ec-Re-En of Jiangsu Province. Firstly, it summarizes the former research on the coordinated development of Ec-Re-En. Secondly, it analyzes the current situation of Jiangsu Ec-Re-En with the two methods: component analyzing and Ambiguity function, and from that we have known about the situation of Jiangsu. Thirdly, it introduces the theory and method of SD, and with the aid of the latest version of the software Vensim, it establishes the SD model of Jiangsu Ec-Re-En. In establishing that model, in addition to the theory of SD, it also uses the other theories such as econometric, sustainable development and resource and environment economic. The whole model consists of three small systems that influence each other: economic system, resource system and environment system.After simulating the Jiangsu Ec-Re-En SD, this paper makes these suggestions for Jiangsu sustainable development: Firstly, Jiangsu should develop economic within measure. According to the simulation result, this paper suggest: ①From 2005 to 2010, the annual growth of GDP is 14%,and it should not exceed 15%;②From 2010 to 2015,the annual growth of GDP is 16%,and it should not exceed 17%.Secondly, Jiangsu should adjust the industry structure. According to the simulation result, the proportionof heavy industry investment and industry investment should above 65%, and the proportion of energy industry investment and heavy industry investment should above 50%.Thirdly, Jiansu should develop the technology of how to saving energy and exploit new energy. According to the simulation result, the resource consumption per GDP should decrease 20% based on the means of 1995~2003.Fourthly, Jiangsu should increase the investment in environment protection, and develop circulation economic. According to the simulation result, the proportion of the investment in environment protection and GDP should above 2% and Jiangsu should development the technology of how to decrease the pollution emission. Based on the means of 1995~2003, the pollution emission coefficient should decrease 10%—20%.