| The real estate industry is an important industry of national economy. Seeing from static angle, it is extremely outstanding that the proportion that the real estate industry increment value occupies GDP, the exploitation and investment shares of the real estate industry occupies the social fixed assets investment, and the exploitation and consumption credit of the real estate industry occupies financial credit amount, along with the contribution to national economy brought by its development. Seeing from dynamic angle, as the real estate industry takes an important position in national economy, its circulating state will have great influence on the continual and healthy development of national economy. When it occurs such state as over-heat or atrophy that is unfavorable for the normal circulating of national economy, it will cause the real estate market lose its balance of supply and demand as well as its fluctuation in price. Therefore, it has very important meaning to study the price fluctuation of the real estate market, and through roundly analyzing, we can judge whether the circulating actuality of the real estate market brings unfavorable influence on national economy, and accordingly afford gist for state managing section to do management decision, as well for real estate developers and buyers to make investment policy. The study thinking of the thesis is clear and simple. Along the recognition to economy phenomena from exterior to essence and the thought course from cognizing economy law to exerting it, the thesis embodies the research of the real estate price fluctuation into three problems: measure the real estate price fluctuation, judge its character, and carry through managing it. The difficulty and keystone of the study rest with judging the character of the real estate price fluctuation. According to above research idea, the thesis is divided into four parts six chapters in structure, the first part(chapter one) is the generality of the whole thesis, the second part(chapter two) studies the measurement method of the real estate price fluctuation, the third part analyzes the character of the real estate price fluctuation form both theoretical aspect and demonstration aspect, including chapter three to chapter five, the fourth part(chapter six) proceeds to expand the research on the real estate price fluctuation, including the early warning against the abnormal fluctuation of the real estate price, the difference of the real estate price fluctuation in various area as well as the management on the real estate crisis. In chapter one, it indicates that the kernel problem in current real estate market is price problem by analyzing the development and the existent problems of china real estate market, and then points out that is has great meaning to study the real estate price fluctuation through theoretical analysis and using international experience for reference.In chapter two, it studies the measurement of the real estate price fluctuation. In this chapter we discuss the real estate price and the factors affecting real estate price fluctuation at first, indicate what the thesis pays attention to is the price fluctuation resulted from the supply and demand change in the real estate market, and then analyze the designing measure of existing real estate price index, point out its subsistent deficiency along with the difficulty to weave the real estate price index; finally after comparing the advantage and disadvantage of variousdesigning measure, and combing with china real estate market's fact, put forward the idea to design china real estate price index by using Hedonic Price Method and the material path to achieve it .In chapter three, it studies the long-term equilibrium price model of the real estate. Based on reviewing the existing capital pricing theory and model, the thesis ponders on the rational assumption in original analytic model using the thinking of behavior economics for reference, considers that the rational assumption in original theory breaks far away from pr...
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