US Congress Decision-Making On Taiwan Issue From 1990: Perspective From Voting Behavior

Taiwan issue is the focus of Sino-American relation, one of the most importantbilateral relations in the world and there have always been contradictory attitudesbetween the U.S. government and its Congress. Therefore the main task of this paperis to give a scientific study of the American Congress's policy on Taiwan issue.The innovation of this paper is which explores the US Congress policy onTaiwan through voting behavior for the first time in China. Based on analysis of theU.S. Congress voting decisions on Taiwan issues from Roll Call study since 1990s,this paper concludes the characteristics of the U.S. Congress voting decision onTaiwan issues – "consistency": the consistency of bills' contents on Taiwan issue, theconsistency of voting results on Taiwan issue, and the consistency of party attitudeson Taiwan issue. However the "consistency" doesn't mean there exist unanimousattitudes from Democrat and Republican. Consistency will differ in different billsand different political parties.This paper also studies the causes of "consistency" from realistic, ideologicaland the American Congress institutional aspects. First, the political and diplomaticchanges of US, China, and Taiwan make "consistency" possible in post-Cold Warera. Second, the American ideology advocating democracy and freedom is thefoundation of "consistency". Finally those factors of US Congress institution allinfluence the Congress policy on Taiwan issue towards the same direction in favor ofTaiwan, so that composition of forces will be in favor of Taiwan inevitably.Finally this paper uses the character of "consistency" to forecast the attitude ofthe American Congress on Taiwan issue in future. The 109th American Congresswill maintain the same attitude and won't change a lot though some Congressmenfailed in reappointments who have stood with Taiwan for a long time.And this paper also provides some clues of the Chinese administration'scountermeasures. In short-term China should strengthen canvass on US Congressand then try to influence the American media and mass. In long-term, Chinaneeds to build a democratic and free self-image in order to alter the USCongress attitude supporting Taiwan fundamentally.