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The Research Of The Quantitative Analysis Of The Trend Of The China's Aging Population Development

Posted on:2012-10-22Degree:MasterType:Thesis
Country:ChinaCandidate:Q T WangFull Text:PDF
GTID:2167330332998333Subject:Demography
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
The 21st century is global century of population aging, along with an aging worldwide population, the arrival of an aging population is broad and profound impact on the human aspects of economic and social life, and it is increasingly becoming a major concern for governments all around the world. According to the 2010 United Nations Population Division's "World Population Ageing (2009)" report (World Population Aging 2009) show that from 1950 to 2009, worldwide over 60 years and the proportion of people aged over 65 have been separately from 8% and 5% to 11% and nearly 8%. The problem of population aging in China also stands out. First of all, our elderly population size is huge, in 1996 and over 65 years our population has reached 86 million elderly, and by 2008 this figure had already reached 109.56 million; secondly, the development of China's aging population very fast. China spent about less than 20 years to complete the transformation from a population of adult-type process for older which the majority of Western countries spent about 50 to 80 years, finally, our current economic level is still at the stage of developing countries, while the growth rate of population aging has greatly exceeded the rate of economic development, and has more than the extent of Western developed countries, The reality of "old before getting rich" will not only present a huge challenge for the Social Security System in China, but also bring heavy pressure on modernization. Therefore, accurate prediction of the future trend of population aging can provide scientific basis for our economic and social development, so it has a very important practical significance for us to accelerating the China's modernization.The content of this study is the China's aging population status and trends. As our aging of the population have regional differences, therefore, to in-depth, comprehensive, accurate predictions of the future trend of population aging, it is necessary from the perspective of the overall and regional to analyze China's aging population status and trends. This paper will use quantitative analysis, from overall and regional levels to analyze and study the aging of our population status and trends. This paper can be broadly divided into the introduction text, status, prediction analysis, measures four major parts. Introduction of which was the first, second chapter, this paper will detail the background, purpose, meaning, structure of the paper, and in the course of the study involved the definition of the concept, data sources and research methods. Chapter III stage of development of China's aging population and aging status analysis, in this chapter, first to do a review from 1949 to 2008 on the development process of China's elderly population, is divided into four stages. Subdivided into the first stage:the development of the elderly population recovery, the second stage:the development of the elderly population transition, and the third stage:the development of the development of the elderly population, the fourth stage: the acceleration of the development of the elderly population. Then, according to Statistical Yearbook of China's population data published in 2000, China formally entered the aging society, so from 2000, both from the perspective of the overall and sub-regional analysis of the status of the aging population, and summarizes the characteristics of China's aging population base on the results of the analysis. Chapter IV is the focus of this article, it will forecast of population aging in China. In this chapter, base on the fifth time the 2000 census data, use of software PEOPLE to forecast aging of China's future population trends, and forecast results of the analysis. Chapter V also the focus of this article, is China's aging population trend of regional quantitative analysis. In this chapter, in accordance with Chapter III of the status of regional population aging, use of SPSS software to do a cluster analysis in 31 provinces and cities, and on the results of the cluster then select a sub-regional representatives provinces and cities to predict, then analyze the result of the prediction. Finally, Chapter VI as part of this response, will be consolidated forecast results of this paper gives the corresponding countermeasures.
Keywords/Search Tags:China, area, aging of the population, quantitative analysis, predict
PDF Full Text Request
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