University Financial Risk Evaluation And Forecasting Model Construction

It is urgently necessary of advanced education to accelerate development, enlarge the enrollment scale and improve the quality of the whole nation. However, there is coming the problem of university financial risk and more complicated situation with such unusual development and large-scale enrolment. Universities have changed from seller market to buyer market. Once failed in the heated competition, it would bring great influence upon universities' financial situation. Therefore, it is very important in practice to study the evaluation, forecasting and control of universities' financial risk.University financial risk is the risk that universities confront when capital running. As institutions, though can not be bankrupt universities may encounter such difficulties as lack of mobile capital which usually results in salary delaying and difficulty in daily operation. The thesis studies financial risk evaluation, forecasting and control of universities in the hope of reference for the management of universities' financial risk work.Firstly, the thesis emphasizes universities' financial risk on the basis of financial risk and considering the importance of universities' financial risk management, divides universities' financial risk management into four: general financial condition out-of-balance risk, fund operation risk, university enterprise financial risk and loan risk.Secondly, the article uses relevant study result home and abroad and current finance and accounting data, selects seventy-one universities of Educational Department as analysis sample, and adopts factor analysis to make an empirical analysis of the year 2002 and 2003 these universities financial risk condition, also it studies the developing trends of universities financial risk by dividing the sample universities into four. Then, this paper uses the combined method of variable co-efficient and topsis to make an empirical analysis of the...