The Research Of University Financial Risk Evaluation And Forecasting Model On Shaanxi Province

Recent years, to solve over-heated expansion speed and intense competition environment, university have once seeked for borrow money to develop education. As a result, this can soothe the capital stress of the higher education development, and also push forward higher educational development rapidly. However, with the deadline come near,universities are unavoidable immersed in the new serious financial risk, and mainly show university can't pay off their mature debts, fall behind working staffs salary, and usually get into difficult financial situation. Therefore, comprehensive, systematic, effectively analysis of the distribution of higher education institution's financial resources; establishing specialized index system and Risk forecasting mechanism; finding the hidden problems among internal financial running, to check, monitor, evaluate, forecast and control the financial risk duly, accurately, dependably, became important contents of current financial management in university.Firstly, the thesis introduced the concept of financial risk in university, type and reason of financial risk, risk forecasting of financial risk and related theories. Its main purpose is to establish the theories basis for university financial risk forecasting; Using financial risk prediction analysis as a diagnostic tool, on the base of dependable accounting information, with the evaluation system for university financial management, which was structured by 26 single financial ratio indexes (26 index was divided into four groups), and factor analysis tool tof SPSS statistic software, seek for 9 irrelevant components and stand for 85% primitive information, and establish financial risk forecasting model which has special professional features in university of Shaanxi province by discriminance analysis tool of SPSS statistic software-the university Fisher discriminance function. After, using Fisher discriminance function to distinguish the risk classification of university of L during 2002-2006, and monitor the financial position on the basis of every year, supply with decision foundation .This thesis also elaborate on the university financial risk control principles, ways and means, and universities in the financial management of the three main risks to control measures, the final proposed the establishment of an early warning mechanism university financial risk and implementation of the concept of the feasibility of programme. Expecting, by monitoring a series of financial risk index data, in various levels, financial managerial staff can forecast, analysis, supervise, diagnose and rectify operating risk boundary of financial funds of university, and provide corresponding controlling and preventive methods. Make efforts to clarify the direction of university capital investment and output, urge university to attain the management work systematic, investment decision scientific, operation procedure normal, operating risk minimum.