The Research On The Grey Forecasting System In The Competitive Sport

The grey forecasting is the important part of the grey system theories and foundation of grey decision making and grey controlling. With its characteristic of poor information and dynamic state the grey forecasting show applied value that is special and important in many research fields.In the sports field, grey forecasting is the grey method which used for athletics research most frequently following grey relational analysis. But its practical value exceed the grey relational analysis method's far and away. It is one of the most important grey methods of research in the athletics field at the present. However, there are severe mistakes about application of the grey forecasting method in the athletics field, and have already hindered normal development of the grey theories in the sports field.Under the background, according to three aspects of grey molding and forecasting application which are the model characteristics, model analytic factor and method of establishing mold, the article establish the frame of grey forecasting theories which include "the special" and "universal model", "multifactor model" and "single factor model", "the simplex model" and "the combined model". The frame is suitable for the competitive sport with high, medium, low levels. These three levels are defined "the conventional model level", "the professional model level" and "the advanced professional model level" from low level to high level.In the article analysis with examples is carried on for the application of gray forecasting method of three model levels in the competitive sport.In the conventional model level, the article mainly discusses the most common and basic problem about the gray forecasting method for the competitive sport. There are establishing the model GM(1,1) method and the testing path; the dimension choice of the original data in grey model the realization of the forecasting work over a long period of time; the increasing of the forecasting accuracy of the grey model; the solving of forecasting problem about affairs with wide-range alteration.In the professional model level, the article mainly studies the specific forecasting work for affairs with competitive sport features. It is designed specially against peculiarity of individual affairs development in competitive sports. This affairs is very abundant, the more model is used the grey model used for the same affairs is also not unique. According to "the single factor and simplex model" and "the single factor and combined model" the article shows two actual affairs to analysis specifically. The one affairs is: "the predictive problem during the period of turning" and "the predictive problem of the discontinuous affairs" in "the single factor and simplex model". The other one is "the predictive problem of the periodic mutation" and "the predictive problem of the irregular alteration affairs" in "the single factor and combined the model".In the advanced professional model level, the article mainly discusses the problem that complicated affairs with multifactor are forecasted. Because multifactor model itself does not have the function of forecasting, the advanced professional model level only has "many factors and combined model". As a result, the forecasting work can be complete when we combine the model GM(n,h) with model GM(1,1). The method that resolves this kind of problem is few. It mainly is "systematic forecasting method" which includes "the systematic structure forecasting", "the systematic harmony forecasting" and "the systematic control forecasting". But users in actual work can't satisfy the applied premise of the system forecasting. As a result, the article introduced the brief and common method again, that the model forecasting method of the GM(1,2) combines with the GM(1,1).For above three levels, applied foreground of the grey forecasting method in the competitive are followed. The conventional model level has already had no more research demand and its emphasis is the popularization and spreading of the theories method; the professional model level is the field that researchers who study the grey theories of sports develop with emphasis, there is the grey forecasting method about athletics special affairs to be developed; the advanced professional model level theories is complicated and inconvenience in the spreading, but its application value is the highest. So direction in the future should be develop software product with professional features. The product can be applied for the competitive sports better.