Research On The Impact Of China’s Population Structure On Household Saving Rate

In the past 40 years,China’s economy has continued to develop rapidly,with creating a miracle of growth.At the same time,China’s household saving rate has been rising along the way,which is known as the "saving puzzle of China".The persistently high household saving rate means that the current consumption of residents has not been effectively released.China’s consumption continues to be depressed,and our domestic demand has not been effectively improved.In China’s economic operation,the role of consumption driven economic growth is weaker than that of investment.This "high saving rate and low consumption" has become a major concern for China’s sustained and steady economic development.Consumption has been mentioned several times in the party’s nineteenth report.We need to constantly improve the institutional mechanism for promoting consumption and continue to guide the fundamental role of consumption in economic operation.At present,China’s economy is entering a new normal,and economic development needs to play an important role in the strategy of expanding domestic demand.Savings and consumption are a pair of relationships.To explore the reasons behind the high household saving rate is of great significance for the release of residents’ consumption potential.Population structure is one of the important factors affecting the household saving rate.It is worth discussing how population structure affects household saving rate.This thesis attempts to analyze the reasons for the high household saving rate in China from the perspective of population structure.In this thesis,the influence of population age structure,gender structure and urban structure on household saving rate is investigated.This thesis includes domestic and foreign research literature.At the same time,this thesis introduces the theoretical basis of population structure effect on residents’ saving rate,and provides theoretical support for the study of post-development.After that,this paper analyzes the current situation of household savings rate and population structure in China,which includes our country residents savings rate,the evolution process of the transverse national savings rate level comparison,evolution of urban and rural residents savings rate,household saving space distribution difference.In China,the population age structure presents a "sub-replacement fertility" and "ageing" characteristics,the gender structure is unbalanced,the urbanization rate with the character of "incomplete urbanization" is growing fast.And then this thesis further elaborates the impact mechanism of population age structure,gender structure,urban and rural structure on household saving rate.On the basis of theoretical analysis,this thesis empirically studies the impact of population structure on household saving rate.This thesis constructs a dynamic panel model of the variables such as child dependency ratio,old-age dependency ratio,sex ratio and urbanization rate by using provincial panel data from 2000 to 2016.This thesis use GMM estimation method to analyze the national sample and analyzes the sample of east and west region.Based on the panel threshold model,this paper tries to verify whether there is a non-linear relationship between per capita income growth rate,population age structure and household saving rate.The conclusions of this thesis are as follows: In this thesis,the junction of the provincial panel data samples,the young dependency ratio and household saving is a significantly negative relationship,old dependency ratio there are significant positive correlation.The population age structure will affect the difference between the income growth rate and the effect of the household saving rate,which is to verify the existence of non-linear relationship.The sex ratio will push up the household saving rate to a certain extent,while the negative effect of urbanization rate on the household saving rate will be weak.There are obvious regional differences in the effect of population structure on household saving rate in sub-regional samples.The influence of the population age structure factors in the eastern region is basically the same as that of the national sample estimation,and the effect is greater than that of the middle and western regions.The effect of sex ratio on household saving rate in different regions was positive.In the sample of east and middle region,the negative effect of urbanization rate on the household saving rate is obvious,while in the western region,the effect is positive.Finally,this paper summarizes the empirical test results.This thesis comprehensively summarizes the effect of the population age structure,gender structure and urban-rural structure factors on household saving rate.The results can help to adjust the household saving rate from the perspective of population structure,which also helps to optimize the population structure.In the long run,it is very meaningful to boost consumption and expand domestic demand.