Study On The Change Of The Population Structure Of China’s Impact On The Current Account

In recent years,the world economy has been undergoing a deep revolution. Mainly standing in for the strong growth of developing countries,such as China,and weak growth of developed countries,such as United States. What must be relatively with the economic pattern change, the global population structure has gradually changed. With the medical technology gradually mature and living environment increasingly improved, the birth rate and mortality rate both decline obviously. The world’s population structure in recent thirty years show the obvious characteristic of the ladder. Many developed countries have entered the aging stage, which directly affect the domestic labor resources supply, resulting in a significant negative effect on economic growth. With labor advantage developing countries grow rapidly, many economies including China has got rapid development in recent decades, economic strength has been continuously enhanced.Since the reform and opening up, Chinese economy maintained a good momentum of development. Especially after joining the WTO, and the world economic exchanges become more frequent. Price advantage of Chinese products won a huge market in the world, making China appeared in consecutive years of trade surplus. But what should be relative with,is consecutive huge trade deficit of United States. There are several reasons accounts for this phenomenon, such as the internal economic structure differences between countries, the international division position in the world, there are also many other factors. Many scholars try to explain the causes of this phenomenon from different angles. This paper tries to use a new point of view that the age structure of the population perspective to analyze the causes of this phenomenon. Taking the provincial data Chinese as research samples, through establishing econometric models to study the internal relationship between population structure and current account. The conclusion of this study will provide some new ideas and suggestions for the future development of china.Firstly,this paper will tell the research significance and the research content of formulation, then, research and review the existing related literature. Moreover,describe the chinese population age structure and the status of the current account. From the statistical point of view,to analyse the relationship between the current account and the visual observations of population structure, observe the sample dataroughly to see whether they are consistent with the theory.Then, this paper establish the three period overlapping generations model as the theoretical basis, from the angle of mathematical,to prove the youth dependency ratio. the elderly dependency ratio.economic growth and the current account is negatively relation. Then,establishing econometric models(dynamic panel model) base on those theoretical basis, and make use of the System GMM estimator(SYS-GMM) to estimate the model, to study the internal relationship between population structure and current account. At the same time, using the difference GMM estimator(DIFF-GMM), fixed effect model(FE), mixed least square estimation(Poo Led OLS) to make a robust test. Research findings show that, Chinese current account showing a strong inertia effect, in addition, the elderly dependency ratio of the current account explanation ability to grow stronger, and significantly, this influence is also very obviously reflected in the regional area. While the youth dependency ratio has a fuzzy relationship with the current account, showing a positive correlation between current account. Because the elderly dependency ratio will produce more serious dependence on the current account, so Chinese ageing societies will have a big consumption on current account surplus which tend to be more prominent. In addition, in the different stages of economic development area, the dependency ratio has not the same affect with the othersIn the future, Chinese population structure will gradually change with the acceleration of the aging phenomenon.Duo to this reason,the Surplus of long period of time tend to be alleviated, the advantage of our export product price will be lost. Considering the state economy strategy adjustment, this paper thinks, Chinese population policy, the current industrial policy has been not able to adapt well to the development of economy, therefore, the forward-looking adjustment is necessary, in order to cope with the impact of negative factors better.