A Pilot Study On Conjecture ＆ Hypothesis Quality And Influential Factors Of The Middle School Students

Influenced by the teaching reform of international science education,scientific inquiry plays a key role in science curriculum standards of basic education。Conjecture & hypothesis steer the process of science inquiry ,are the focus and masterstroke in science inquiry. So it play a decisive role to develop the conjecture & hypothesis level of students。Testee:about 280 people,five classes,grade one in two senior high schools(one ordinary high school and one provincial key high school);Test time:At beginning of October, 2007.A self-made questionnaire on conjecture & hypothesis is used to examine the student's conjecture & hypothesis quality,while other questionnaires made by other researchers to test logical reasoning ability,metacognition level,motivation Level and scientific attitude. By statistical methods,we know the quality and their influential factors of conjecture & hypothesis and see how the influential factors work on the students to coordinate theory and evidence when they meet new phenomenon (Anti-cases) .The next step is to search ways and means to improve the conjecture & hypothesis quality of students。Written examination is popular,while it is the worst ways to evaluate science inquiry ability of student. Even so, written examination is still used because of several limiting condition. Several betterments are introduced in the written examination in order to make a"real"inquiry scene for students. Any conjecture & hypothesis aimed at one link can not show the quality roundly,because the movement is running through the whole science inquiry process. Students are requested to make conjecture & hypothesis in grading,In page one,they must select the most reasonable conjecture & hypothesis from others and give explanation; in page two,they must proceed with conjecture & hypothesis according to the new experiment phenomenon and evaluate the preceding conjecture & hypothesis. This research shows that this can fully explore the entire test students in the process of conjecture and assumptions, and reduce the error between written examination and real inquiry scene.We make conclusions as follows:(1)The conjecture & hypothesis quality of students is not good. There is difference between the highest quality conjecture & hypothesis in page one selected by students and the actual one. Question around-the-clock can perfect the conjecture & hypothesis quality of students;new phenomenon(evidence) and antinomy (counterexample) can increase the number and improve the quality of conjecture & hypothesis;the difficulty and familiarity of question also can promote the conjecture & hypothesis quality ,but students ignore the counterexample and can not change their ideas when they make sure they are right and have fixed thinking model. The conjecture & hypothesis number of each question is mainly between 2—3。(2) Besides will,each factor have no educational statistics influence on the number of conjecture & hypothesis. In page one,it is prominent that, the will is more bullheaded,the number of conjecture & hypothesis is less。(3)The student's character is irrespective to the conjecture & hypothesis quality,but the gender has great effect on the conjecture & hypothesis quality, and schoolboys better than schoolgirls. schoolboys are easier to change their conjecture & hypothesis and do it better than schoolgirls in the face of counterexample.(4)The physics achievement has great impact on the quality of students guess. The student's achievement is better,the higher conjecture & hypothesis quality the student have,the student with better achievement is easier to change his(her) conjecture & hypothesis and do it better in the face of counterexample.(5)The logical reasoning ability of student have significant influence on conjecture & hypothesis quality . The stronger logical reasoning ability the student have,the higher conjecture & hypothesis quality the student have,the student with stronger logical reasoning ability is easier to change his(her) conjecture & hypothesis and do it better in the face of counterexample.(6)Metacognition have no impact on the conjecture & hypothesis quality in page one but prominent in page two when new phenomenon(counterexample) is presented. Plan and consciousness all have great effect on the conjecture & hypothesis quality. Plan play the foremost role on the conjecture & hypothesis quality in both page one and two,while consciousness do more on guess level than explanation level and the effect is stronger in page two than in page one. Adjustment have some effect on guess level ,but method and summing-up are irrelated to the conjecture & hypothesis quality。(7)In all dimensions of motivation, the sense of self-efficacy have influence on conjecture & hypothesis quality greatly,the higher sense of self-efficacy the student have ,the higher conjecture & hypothesis quality the student have,the student with higher sense of self-efficacy is easier to change his(her) conjecture & hypothesis and do it better in the face of counterexample,but the stronger will the student have,the worse conjecture & hypothesis quality the student have. The internal motivity of self-enhancement,the subsidiary internal motivity and attribution have no effect on conjecture & hypothesis quality,but the student have these characters in middle level is easiest to find contradiction and improve conjecture & hypothesis quality in the face of counterexample.(8)Scientific attitude have little effect on conjecture & hypothesis quality even when the new phenomenon(counterexample) is presented. While there are contradictions between guess and the phenomenon in second page, the students with the scientific attitude are easier to find contradiction and correct the guess.(9)Even above-mentioned factors are independent,but almost all of theirs existing complex correlativity and work on conjecture & hypothesis quality interactively at the same time, motivation(except for sense of self-efficacy and will ) and scientific attitude influence on conjecture & hypothesis quality of students through physics achievement and metacognition。(10)The conjecture & hypothesis ability of students is independent of metacognition,motivation,scientific attitude and logical reasoning ability。...