Research On The Urban Population Structural Changes And Housing Demand

With the rapid economic development,people's living standards are improving.And their demand for housing has become increasingly diversified,not only to meet the current supply of housing.Thus,to provide the supply according to the demand is the most efficient method to regulate and control the real estate market and the study of housing demand has important practical significance.And as people's important material conditions for settling down and living space for the longest time,housing is also the essential consumer goods for people's lives,and to study the housing demand,the central concern should be "people." As a subjective will,demand will be affected by many factors with uncertainty.But changes in the population are relatively stable,so to predict the housing demand from the perspective of the population is the most basic and reasonable demand that can provide a reference to study the city's real estate and other economic development planning.This paper mainly bases on data analysis,and predicts the development and changes in trends of the future urban housing needs from the perspective of population changes.First,with other inflecting factors of housing demand remaining unchanged,based on the analysis of population and population structure of Shijiazhuang,this article predicts the housing demand of Shijiazhuang before 2020.With the Fifth National Census data of Shijiazhuang in 2000,this paper uses the most commonly prediction method-the age-shift algorithm that is commonly used in the sub-elements demographic analysis techniques. Through the respective projections of births,deaths and other demographic elements,this article predicts the changing trends in the size and structure.Second,because of the family-unit consumption of housing,the focus of the research in housing demand is to the examine changes in household.In this paper,the author uses the alteration of general quantity of population and the main family to forecast the number of households.Then according to the proportions of the households in different sizes and types of the two recent census data of Shijiazhuang,this paper uses straight-line extrapolation to predict the proportions of the different family structures from 2008 to 2020.And with the combination of family households the author predict the quantity of families in different sizes and types. At the same time,the author designed the questionnaire,using the non-randomized purposive sampling method,and selected a certain number of urban families to carry out the survey for collecting the wishes about housing demand in area and type of families in different sizes and types.The questionnaire results are meta-analysis;meta-analysis of the results will serve as the basis for housing demand prediction.Later,assuming the housing demand remains unchanged over the forecast period,based on the questionnaire data of housing demand for size and type of different family structure, combined with changes in family structure,by coupling analysis,the author predicts the annual housing demand of total area and type of Shijiazhuang from 2008 to 2020.Through prediction,the results are as follows:Firstly,the cumulative demand for housing in the area will first decrease year by year and then increase slowly in Shijiazhuang from 2008 to 2020.The cumulative housing demand in different family structures will also change year by year.The cumulative housing demand for size in one-person households, two-person households and three-person households will increase gradually.In which the annually increased housing demand of one-person households and two-person households will increase,and that of three-person households will be relatively stable.While the cumulative housing demand for size of the four-person households and above will continue to decline.The cumulative housing demand for size of one-generation households and three-generation households and above will gradually increase,in which the annually increased housing demand of one-generation households will increase,while that of three-generation households will decrease year by year.And the cumulative housing demand of second-generation households will decline gradually.Secondly,the new housing demand for unit type is also changing.The new housing demand for units of two bedrooms and one living room will increase year by year.The new housing demand for units of two bedrooms and two living rooms,three bedrooms and two living rooms are relatively stable.And the cumulative demand for and villas and units of three bedrooms and one living room,four bedrooms and two living rooms will decrease gradually.Finally,this paper bases on data analysis,and predicts the housing demand from the perspective of population especially the perspective of family structure.And from the viewpoint of consumers,combining with changing trends in the population and the family structure,this paper put forward a few suggestions for the government departments and the real estate developers:Increase the development of small and medium-sized housing units ratio;the housing development should not be increased blindly,and we should know housing supply and demand situation last year,then we make appropriate adjust the number of housing development;in accordance with housing needs to adjust the housing supply system, the government departments should also take certain policy measures.