A Study On The Regional Difference Of The Influence Of Family Age Structure On Housing Demand

During the decade of 2008-2018,the price of commercial housing in China increased by 11.4% on average,and the sales area of commercial housing increased by 11.8% on average.It can be seen from the data that housing demand exceeds the rise of housing price.As the consumers of the real estate market,the change of population and structure is bound to directly or indirectly affect the housing demand.Because of the previous family planning policy,China has entered the "three low ages"-low birth rate,low mortality rate and low natural growth rate.This makes the aging of the population an irreversible form.In order to mitigate the negative impact of the "demographic dividend",the comprehensive two child policy was formally implemented in October 2015.In the case of the disappearance of fertility policy and the good real estate financial market,it is of great significance to study the influence of population age structure on housing demand.Population transformation theory,life cycle theory and real estate supply and demand theory are the theoretical basis of this paper.Firstly,this paper reviews the research on the impact of population age structure on real estate demand at home and abroad.On the basis of previous studies,this paper analyzes the influence mechanism of population age structure on housing demand in theory,which lays a theoretical foundation for the empirical analysis in the future.In the empirical part,based on the macro data(provincial panel data in 2003-2017),this paper finds that there is a close relationship between the population age structure and housing demand.Secondly,based on the 2017 China Household Financial survey data(chfs),this paper analyzes the impact of family age structure on housing demand from the perspective of family.Taking the child dependency ratio and the elderly dependency ratio as the measurement of the age structure of the family population,on the basis of controlling the characteristic variables of the head of household and the characteristic variables of the family income and assets,this paper studies the regional differences of the age structure of the family population on the housing demand in three economic regions,East,West and East respectively.Through theoretical and empirical research,this paper draws the following conclusions: first,at this stage,with the increase of children's dependency ratio,housing demand will be restrained,and the increase of the elderly's dependency ratio will promote the increase of housing demand;second,the impact of population age structure on effective housing demand shows regional difference,and the higher the level of economic and social development,the impact of population age structure on housing demand The louder the sound.Third,the age structure of population has regional differences in potential housing demand.Finally,according to the conclusion of the study,this paper proposes to develop the real estate industry,guide the transformation of women's concept of childbearing,strengthen the security,and adjust measures to local conditions,so as to promote the coordinated development of the three regional housing markets in the East,the middle and the West.