| In the recent ten years, the Chinese economy keeps growing, the populations are too mobile, the level of urbanization is increasing. On this background, housing prices continue to rise rapidly, so unaffordable housing becomes one of the major issues affecting people's lives. However, with the high prices, residential sales area also continue to increase at the same time. For example, from2004to2012, the residential sales growth rate reached16.0%which is more than the housing prices growth of8.9%annually. Why does the housing demand run faster than housing prices? This problem deserving of our study is caused by economic development, or stimulating effect of residents income growth, or the advancing urbanization, or still population structure change, or other. This paper attempts to explain it from the perspective of population structure in details. Exploring the impacts of population structure on housing demand systematically has important significances both in theory and reality. In order to promote the sound development of China's real-estate market,this not only allows us to understand the influences of the specific demographic variables on housing demand fully, but also realizes the reasonable adjustment of housing policy. Reviewing domestic and foreign literatures, we find that there are many literatures about population structure impacts on housing demand. Overall, they mainly relate to the population's age structure, family structure and urbanization,while the most scholars believe that the declining birthrate and increasing aging will bring down the housing demand,and decreasing in family size and the urbanization are beneficial to enhance the housing demand. Throughout foreign countries where have a large number of studies on the impacts of demographic demand for housing, while the domestic study are not enough, especially the empirical literatures are numbered. Therefore, the strengthening of research in the field is imminent. This paper is based on the literatures from abroad, firstly analyses the theoretical relationship between population structure and housing demand, and uses the Chinese provincial panel data to analyze the impacts of population structure on housing demand.Further more.the use of the robustness test and comparative analysis makes the conclusions more reliable. Further on the basis of demographic forecasts predict the future housing demand. Finally, according to the results of empirical research and prediction, the conclusions are drawn in the end, and put forward relevant policy recommendations. Specifically, the paper is divided into seven chapters.Chapter I:Introduction. This chapter presents the research background, research questions and research significance, while it elaborates research ideas and frameworks, research contents, research methods. The chapter also summarizes the possible innovations in this paper.Chapter II:Reviewing of the theories and literatures about this paper. First, this chapter review the four basic theories which are relevant to the subject of this article:the demographic transition theory, life-cycle theory, consumption function theory, real estate supply and demand theory. On these bases, respectively,the chapter reviews the literatures about the effects of the age structure, family structure and urban and rural structure on housing demand, and comment these literatures, which provide the basis and support for the deep analysis later in this article. Finally,it point out the difference issues studied in this paper which compare with previous literatures.Chapter III:Theoretical study of population structure on housing demand. Firstly this chapter introduces the concepts of population and housing structure, and classifies the population structure and housing demand. Second, in terms of economic, demographic, social environment, natural conditions analyze the influencing factors of housing demand. Finally, from the theoretical perspective, it analyzes the impacts of population natural structure, social structure, and geographical structure on housing demand.Chapter IV:Describe the changes of China's population structure and the housing market. First, this chapter introduces the changes of China's population structure from three aspects including natural structure, social structure, regional structure in recent years. Then it introduces the changes in the housing market, inculding:housing demand, housing prices, housing consumption. Finally, the correlation analysis of population structure and housing demand are analyzed, and the analysis shows that housing demand has correlations with the typical indicators of age population structure, family structure, occupation and industry structure, urban and rural structure, and so on.Chapter V:An empirical study about the impacts of population structure on China's housing demand. This chapter mainly uses the theoretical models to study the effects of population structure on housing demand by Chinese provincial panel data, including national and regional empirical analysis. It also combines the demonstration of population aging on housing demand by the data of sixth census2010. The results shows that the current natural population structure, which the children ratio has a negative impact on housing demand, the elderly dependency ratio has a positive impact on the demand for housing. At the social structure of the population, the average household size has a negative impact on housing demand, the proportion of the employed population in the secondary and tertiary industry both have positive impacts on housing demand.At the geographical structure of population, urbanization has a positive impact on housing demand and the proportion of migrants has a negative impact on housing demand. However, with the increasing aging population, its positive impact on housing demand will be weakened, Even it may come to a negative impact in the future. In the process of urbanization, its positive impact on housing demand may also be weakened.And he impact on the housing demand of migrants may change with the floating population structure shifts.Chapter VI:Predict China's housing demand based on the forecast population structure. Firstly this chapter predicts the China's population structure, including the age structure, household size, the proportion of the employed populations in the secondary and tertiary industries, urbanization and so on. Then predict future changes in housing demand based on forecast population structure. Forecasting results showed:future housing demand will surge by the effected population structure. Especially the positive forecasts of the elderly dependency ratios on current housing demand indicates that population aging will further stimulate housing demand. Urbanization will also be an important factor in the rising demand for housing promotion.Chapter VII:Conclusions and policy recommendations. This chapter summarizes the conclusions of this paper:child dependency ratio is negatively associated with housing demand, elderly dependency ratio is positively associated with the housing demand, family miniaturization makes rising housing demand, and the tertiary industry is the source of the rising housing demand, urbanization promotes housing demand, and so on. Combining these conclusions it puts forward relevant policy recommendations.First, the development of the real estate market should consider the impacts of population structure, with the changing of population structure which can promote the development of the real estate business, Such as:full use of the advantage of the demographic dividend can promote the development of the real estate business; under the background of increasing aging population, vigorously develop the old estate; Housing construction should take into account changes in family size, optimize residential structure; promoting agricultural population to non-agricultural department, that will provide the source of power for the housing demand; Steady improvement in the level of urbanization can promote the healthy development of the real estate market; Strengthen management of floating population and solve the housing problems of migrants. The second is to guide the reasonable needs of the housing market, to curb speculative demand. Third, establish and improve housing guarantee and supply system, satisfy the residents' housing demand. Fourth, strengthen market supervision, and protect the consumers' legal rights and interests. Finally, point out the shortcomings and prospects for further research in this paper.The seven chapters above include the research foundations, the basic situations, the empirical study, and the conclusions measures, all parts related and progressive with rigor logic. The innovations of this paper mainly contain the following four aspects:First innovative is methods. Previous studies about the impacts of population structure on housing demand, are often from the theoretical analysis, or the use of time-series data, relatively little use of panel data. This paper not only analyzes the impacts from the theoretical perspective, but also examines the impacts of the population structure on housing demand by panel data, and including the sub-regional study, which is less involved in the previous studies. In addition, this paper uses the2010census data to verify the impact of population aging on housing demand. Second, the research perspective is new. Previous studies of population structure, primarily relate to the age structure, or family structure, or urban-rural structure. This paper analyzes the effects of generalized population structure (population natural structure, social structure, regional structure) on housing demand. The generalized population structure contain age structure, family structure, education structure, marriage structure, occupation and industry structure, urban and rural structure, liquidity structure, which broad the perspective of previous studies. Third, Research content is creative. Effects of past demographic demand for housing, often only contain the study of the impacts, without further predict of the impact of future population structure changes on housing demand. This paper predicts the future trends of housing demand, based on empirical results and projected population structure. Fourth, the Research results are fresh. This study finds that China's aging population has a positive impact on housing demand, and the impact is fading; the proportion of floating population has a negative impact on housing demand. These are rarely found in previous studies. |
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