| The house,which the resting place of each family,is becoming an important livelihood guarantee for the vigorous development of the economic society in the new era.Since the opening of China's housing market in 1998,housing has always been one of the most important livelihood problem of the country and it is also an essential part of the people's yearning for a better life.General Secretary Xi Jinping pointed out that "the house is used to live,not to fry" position,"to accurately grasp the housing's residential properties."Holding the housing's residential property is a scientific repositioning of China's real estate market which based on national conditions and public sentiment,and it is in line with the basic interests of the broadest masses of people and is also the people's most concerned about the most direct and most realistic interests.The development of a healthy real estate market should be compatible with the current stage of economic,social development and the level of residents' income.It is necessary to ensure everyone's basic housing needs and allow the house to return to residential properties.It is not difficult to find clear housing need,which precise house-supply is the realization of the people's livelihood and the origin of the "home".Meanwhile,people and familiesdetermiine the housing needs of residential properties to some extent as the basic carrier of housing demand.Therefore,starting from the national conditions of our country's population,qualitative and quantitative analysis of the impact of population and household changes on housing demand and development,and to explore the relevant policies and recommendations have strong theoretical and practical significance.Owing to the large differences in the population factors in various provinces in China,selecting a province's housing needs as an object is conducive to accurate research results,this paper takes Fujian Province as an example.Based on the existing studies at national and international,the relevant factors of population and family households that have a direct impact on housing demand are studied through qualitative and quantitative analysis methods,and the total housing demand in Fujian Province Quantity to make predictions.Firstly,the article describes and analyzes population factors such as population size,population density,age structure,gender structure,marriage structure,education structure,and family structure in Fujian Province.Quantitative analysis methods are used to select the total permanent population,natural population growth rate,and children.The six indicators of dependency ratio,average years of schooling,age dependency ratio,and average household size were used as indicators of dynamic economic models.The method of model-assisted verification was introduced,and the rationality of the linear regression model was verified by using the neural network model to ensure the rationality of the linear regression model as an influencing factor analysis of housing demand.Empirical evidence shows that the total permanent population is the primary factor in deciding housing demand.The total permanent population,per capita education,old dependency ratio,and natural population growth rate are positively correlated with housing demand;average household size,child dependency ratio and housing demand Negative correlation.Finally,the time series model was used to analyze the changing trend of population and households in Fujian Province from 2017 to 2030.The linear regression model was used to predict that the total housing demand will enter a slow growth stage;and based on the changes in housing demand time trends in Fujian Province,the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions ofpopulation ageing,family miniaturization and other issues are put forward to make housing development more able to realize the people's "living and living”a better life. |
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