The Influence And Prediction Of Family Population Structure On Housing Demand

With the rapid development of the economy and society,the structure of China's family population is undergoing profound changes.The ageing of the population and the low birth rate have become an inevitable serious problem in China's economic and social development,which will have a profound impact on housing demand.However,existing studies have mainly explored changes in housing demand from urbanization,monetary determinism,and speculative demand theory,and there has been relatively little research on how the family demographic structure affects housing demand.At present,especially in the context of the implementation of the“Comprehensive Two-Child”policy,it is of great theoretical significance not only to have an in-depth understanding of the internal mechanism and role path of future family demographics on housing demand,but also to predict housing demand.It has strong practical guiding significance and provides reference for the state to regulate the housing market.Based on this,this paper uses the data of China Family Finance Survey(CHFS)in2013 to empirically test the relationship between family population structure and housing demand,and to study the impact of family population structure on whether to hold real estate by constructing two Probit models.Multiple Probit models were constructed to study the impact of family structure on housing area and housing numbers.The Clad model was constructed to study the impact of family population structure on the proportion of housing expenditure in total expenditure.The following conclusions are drawn:1.The 30-49 year old population has the largest estimated coefficient of family holding property,the most significant impact.2.The 15-29 age group has a significant impact on the housing area,compared with other age groups,the housing demand for people aged 30-49 and 50-64 is mainly concentrated above151m~2.3.The population of all ages has an inhibitory effect on the family not holding houses.But the 15-29 year old population has no significant impact on family holdings of 3 suites and above.4.The number of boys,the number of households aged 15-29,50-64 and 65-74 have a significant positive impact on the proportion of housing consumption in total expenditure.Finally,based on the sixth census data and the 2017 China Population and Employment Statistics Yearbook,this paper uses the Leslie population model to estimate future demographic changes caused by the“Universal Two-Child”policy.The forecast results show that with the implementation of the“Universal Two-Child Policy”,the child rearing ratio will increase steadily and significantly.China's household housing consumption will still have 12 years of growth since 2020,but it cannot change the overall increase and then decrease of housing consumption.From the perspective of population age structure,the 30-49-year-old population and the 50-64-year-old middle-aged population will dominate.China's future real estate market demand will be led by rigid demand-led to improved demand,thus effectively increasing the total housing consumption..