The Study On Sustainable Development Of Population In Liaoning Coastal Economic Zone

Population development and the condition of resource environment, the level of economic and social development are inextricably linked. Sustainable development of population should be harmonious with the carrying capacity of resources and environment and the level of economic and social development. Purpose of this paper is to define appropriate population size and population distribution in Liaoning coastal economic zone for sustainable development, insure the development strategy of Liaoning coastal economic zone could be carried out successful, promote the sustainable development of the region.With the help of econometric method such as principal component analysis, linear regression analysis, combined with the actual situation of Liaoning coastal economic zone, this paper evaluates the carrying capacity of resources and environment and the development level of economic and social. The result shows that Liaoning coastal economic zone is population concentration area, and the future development of population will be a concentration process. Furthermore, the population concentration areas in Liaoning coastal economic zone are classifed with the help of clustering method.On this basis, using dynamic bearing capacity theory, combined the collected data, this paper estimates the carrying capacity of forests, water resources,building capacity and educayion in Liaoning coastal economic zone the current and in 2020, and ultimately, caculates the upper limit of population development in the region.Finally, According to Cobb-Douglas production function, using Eviews software, a regression model about the relationship of GDP and fixed asset investment, the amount of labor, expenditures of science and technology activities is built, to predict the economy development of Liaoning coastal economic zone and the population size which economic needs in 2020. Results show that economic development in Liaoning coastal economic zone by 2020 will keep a steady and rapid speed, and average annual growth rate of GDP is near or more than 10%. Accordingly, population in this region will grow faster. The speed is higher than the rate of population growth in the past.Conclusion is that the social situation and resources and environment carrying capacity in Liaoning coastal economic zone could support the rapid development of economy, which can be reached by comparing demographic comprehensive carrying capacity of this region and the population size which economic needs in 2020. The population size with sustainable development should be between the bearing capacity and population which economic needs, that is between 3.37 to 4.31 million. But in some areas, population size which economic needs exceeds the capacity of the population. Conflicts appears between economic, social situation, population and resource and environmental, which will affect the region's sustainable development. Based on the findings, Suggestions are given to promote the sustainable development of population, resources and economy.