Cognitive Deviation Analysis And Empirical Study Of Impromptu Decision - Making Under Sudden Incident

With frequent human activities and rapid development of economic, we are in the time of frequent emergency. Not only appears some serious emergencies such as Wenchuan earthquake, Malaysia flight disappearances, terrorist attacks in Kunming Railway Station, but also appears a series of "Minor" events such as the violence events of Yan’an city inspectors and the poisoning incident. Kinds of emergency will happen in various fields. All these are serious threat to the social life, and have great impact on the economic operation. Consequently, it is urgent that make the research about improvised decision-making which can improve the decision inside the government and adaptability to response. Improvised decision that coping with the emergencies has already gradually changed from "predict-coping with" to "scenario-coping with". Decision maker is easy to use intuition or elicitation to make a snap judgment, so cognitive biases will occur and result in mistakes. Therefore the study of individual cognitive biases of decision makers and effect is helpful to improve decision-making’ability and reduce mistakes when an emergency happened.In the following relevant theoretical research, this paper analyzes the decision maker’s major cognitive biases and the influence to the decision. The specific contents including are as the following:First, on the basis of literature review, we analyze improvised decision’s five interference factors under emergency. I summarized cognitive biases of improvised decision include over-confidence, under reaction, availability bias, anchoring effect, framing effect and status quo bias, and verified the existence of six kinds of cognitive biases by using the scene simulation.Second, based on "Scenario-Coping with", it offers four improvised decision-making types, It also discusses the main cognitive biases of different improvised decision by using the case analysis mode. We can realize the major cognitive bias of creative and adaptive type respectively are availability bias and framing effect; variant type include over-confidence and anchoring effect, alternative type contain status quo bias and under reaction.Third, on the basis of prospect theory and risk-benefit model, we make a theoretical research to explore the effect of cognitive bias on improvised decision-making. We consider that cognitive bias affect the risk behavior of improvised decision-making by impacting expected return and risk perception. Then we assume that anchoring effect and framing effect impact the judgment of decision maker on expected return. over-confidence, representativeness bias, availability bias and framing effect affect the improvised decision-making by impacting risk perception.Fourth, based on data from137decision maker of multi-level as well as the results of regression analysis, this paper indicates that:i) Expected return and risk perception is positively associated to risk behavior of improvised decision-making; ii) Framing effect are positively associated to expected return of decision maker; over-confidence and representativeness bias are negatively but availability bias are positively associated to risk perception; iii)Risk perception partially mediates the relationship between availability bias and risk behavior of improvised decision-making, but completely mediates the relationship between overconfidence, representativeness bias and risk behavior, meantime, expected return completely mediates the relationship between framing effect and risk behavior of improvised decision-making.At the end, Building the control model and verify that by nuclear accident in Japan. Meantime, this paper puts forward the frame strategy to control cognitive biases.