The Study Of Finance Risk Evaluation And Assistant Decision-making Base On Matter Element Evaluation Model And Group Decision-making Concentrate Algorithm

The financial risk system is a system influenced by many kinds of interrelated economic factors. It has some characteristics, such as complexity, systematicness, dynamics, comprehensive and feedbacking, etc.. The evaluation of financial risk, decision-making and control all need a complete economic index and a comprehensive evaluation model. This dissertation regards methodology of the complicated system as guidelines, researches on the financial risk system with qualitative and quantitative analysis. After predicting the financial revenue and expenditure trend, the local financial risk is evaluated synthetically. In this way, we can monitor whole and individual event index in the safety limit. Finally, we can make decision according to evaluation result, and tak some precautions keep away the local financial risk. In this dissertation, proceeding from the angles of the model and index, the financial revenue and expenditure trend predicting based on grey model and the local financial risk evaluating based on matter element evaluation model are studied. The framework and research fruits are listed as follows: 1. The dissertation begins with a overview of local financial risk control. Current situation of theoretic research and application is reviewed. At the same time, the objective and scheme are proposed based on this. 2. The local financial risk has some behavior characters, such as non-linear and insufficient data. After analysing and comparing several kinds of predicting algorithms, we predict the financial revenue and expenditure by grey model. According to seek the change rules through the arrangement of initial data, we can analyse the current situation of local economy, and offer the corresponding statistics data for decision-making. 3. The economic index system is standardized for the financial risk degree. A comprehensive evaluation model is set up, which can reflect the situation of whole financial risk. On the basis of index system and financial budget, some problems is studyed, such as the collection of the initial data, the simulation of predicting algorithms, the extraction with eigenvector, the setting of the monitor index etc.. 4. The matter element evaluation model for local finace risk is set up after analysing the characteristic, structure and modeling method of matter element model, which can evaluate the whole financial risk by extension method and monitoring the single index. 5. According to the evaluating result of finance risk, the mission and target of the decision are all made out. A model is proposed to concentrate group members'decisions into a unify decision. 6. Finally, this dissertation introduce the design the structure of system, the frame of software and the key module of monitoring system. The financial risk control is still in exploring at home and abroad. Its success will bring the considerable economic benefits and good social benefit to the society. In further, research and popularization will be continued.