Study On Real Estate Cycle Fluctuation And Early Warning System

With the development of socialism market economy in our country, real estate, which is highly related and has strong force to other trade economy, has already become the pillar of our national economy. It makes great potential contribution to GDP now. Real estate investment is a main component of that in fixed assets, and one of main motive force to national economic developments. Because the increase of investment was too fast in some areas, the land supply was excessive, the price rose rapidly, some abnormal phenomena such as"overheated""abnormal heat"and"structure problem"appeared in some degree and serious risk existed in real estate market ."Watch out for the Chinese real estate bubbles"is a focus question to some people and it is necessary to set up real estate early warning system in real estate market.In line with apply theory to reality, this article take the real estate cycle theory as the theory basis, first has analyzed Urumqi real estate cycle undulation characteristic as well as the influence real estate cycle undulation three factors. Next, in the cyclical undulation rationale starts the strength to construct the Urumqi city real estate early warning system. The paper system elaborate real estate early warning definition, research early warning system has constructed entire process. Including: 1. Uses the coefficient of variation determination early warning system the police source target; 2. Determines the early warning system with the time difference correlation analysis a police trillion target, 3. Uses the fuzzy recognition technology and the improvement rank characteristic value law synthesizes the Urumqi shop facing the street real estate synthesis rank early warning index, and has carried on the historical confirmation. The practice proved that, the early warning system forecast result comparison conforms to the Urumqi shop facing the street industry development actual situation, has achieved the early warning goal.