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The Study Of The Steel's Price Forecast

Posted on:2006-06-13Degree:MasterType:Thesis
Country:ChinaCandidate:J LiuFull Text:PDF
GTID:2179360182470545Subject:Business management
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
With the intensity of competition in steel industry, how to exactly forecast the steel's price becomes an important issue that should be paid more attentions by steel companies. This paper firstly discusses the index of steel industry prosperity and analyzes the steel market structure to understand the development trend of steel industry. Then, we forecast the steel's price from two aspects, that is, outside driving factors and its self-developing trend. Outside driving factors are analyzed by using qualitative and quantitative methods, and the outcomes coming from these methods checkout and support each other. In the analyzing price self-developing trend, the paper adopts firstly several time series models to forecast the future price, then synthesizes the results by using a combination model to reach optimization. Finally, the paper contrasts and synthesizes the forecasted outcomes educed from the two aspects of outside driving factors and self-developing trend of price, that is, we synthesize the forecasted outcomes of long-term and short-term development trends and result in the final forecasted price of steel industry. The final result is also explained in the paper. We conclude the following conclusions by this study: We do an empirical study on the price of steel industry in April 2004 by using the forecast system proposed by this paper. The results show that the price we forecasted is in accord with the practice. It means that the model proposed by us is suitable for forecasting steel price in China. Besides, by contrasting various forecasting models, we conclude that the model proposed by this paper is scientific and better. Empirical study also shows its operationalization of the model. Scientific and empirical studies show that our model can be used to guide the steel companies in pricing and promote their competence in price.
Keywords/Search Tags:Steel Industry, Price Forecast, Market Structure, Multiple Regression Analysis
PDF Full Text Request
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