Analysis And Forecasting Research On The Supply And Demand Of Labor Force In Hebei Province

Since the reform and opening-up, the economic growth in Hebei province accelerated, however the supply and demand of labor force always kept the un-balanceable situation with a large indentation and the trend was more and more serious. By 2004, the total population of labor force of 15~64 years old in Hebei was 49,467,900 population, and the total number of employees was 35,167,100 population at the end of the year. The proportion of supply and demand was about 1: 1.41, and the gap of the supply and demand was up to 14,300,800 population. So large unemployment certainly will strengthen the pressure on employment of Hebei . Probing into the cause, first of all, the fundamental cause is that so large population determine the enormous supply of labor force;secondly, the main reason for this kind of unbalanced situation is that the lower quality of the labor force in Hebei which determines the lack of demand attribute to it mostly. On the basis of summarizing and analyzing a large number of Chinese and foreign production, the text studied the supply and demand of labor force, with intent to analyse the relationship trend of the supply and demand of labor force on total amount, structure, behavior and etc, and to find out the substantive question of the unbalance between supply and demand of labor force, in order to seek the causation which influences the society , economic development and put forward the countermeasures and suggestions about society, economy, people's sustainable development in Hebei. First of all, proceeding from the current situation of supply and demand of labor force in Hebei, the text analyzed the alteration of supply and demand on total amount, quality and structure. By the look of supply, the youthful labor force entered the increasing peak period, all in all the labor participation rate was on the high side and the quality of labor force raised constantly even, but the quality of labor force was lower;By the look of demand, owing to the prodigious decrease of the employees of town enterprise, the increasing rate of total employees in the whole society had been lowered, and the culture trait of employee had been enhanced at large. Otherwise with the development of economy, the structure of industry and employment was more reasonable gradually. Further more, on the basis of estimate of agricultural surplus labor force in Hebei, we found that the agricultural surplus labor force had ascended from 1980 to 2003. Secondly, on the basis of analyzing current situation, we had analyzed theinteraction of supply and demand of labor force from the aspect of total amount and structure of the labor force, to find out the reason of the unbalance between supply and demand, and the regress analysis to set up mathematical model, to predict the supply and demand trends of labor force's overall scale in medium and long-term period separately, to discover, by 2020 those will be 5,000,000-8,000,000 population overplus which cannot find equal job if the present trend will go down. Otherwise we use the regress models to predict the structure of labour force of three industry in the long-term period. According as the midterm forecasting scheme, by the year of 2020 the rate of labor force of the first industry would be declined continuously, the one of the second industry would be gone up reposefully, not found a large extent, the rate of the third industry would been gone up evidently, by the year of 2002 the rate would be 29.22%. So the structure of labor force will be further optimized and adjusted in the future, to make the structure transform into the modern type. Finally, the text will propose the countermeasure and suggestion which can mitigate the contradiction of the unbalance of supply and demand of labor force combining with the outcome of quantitative analysis. For example, to steady lower procreative level and optimizes the structure of population;to strengthen macro-adjustments and controls to promote the upgrading of industrial structure and expand the employment;to set up the information interflowing and wholesome labor force market, due to actualize virtual ordonnance;to intensify exploiture of human resource to improve labor's quality and boost up the competition in the labor force market;to establish and improve the system of social guarantee and construct harmonious society.