The Dynamic Modeling Research On The Economics Sustainable Development Of The Forestry Resource-Based City Yichun

The resource-based city is a kind of city that has special functions. These cities were built or developed more quickly for the resource exploited. Yichun is one of the most important country-owned forestry areas and the forestry industry base, which was called the home of the pine trees, and also was one of the biggest forestry resource-based cities. It went through the building, the developing, and the declining periods. But at present the forests that can be cut down are fewer, so that the forestry industries are very difficult, and the situation has been very hard for the economic activities for the people there and the sustainable development of the city. Under such background, this paper does research on the problem of the sustainable development in the forestry resource-based city, find the relationship between the cut of the forest and economic development, and the problems in the economic develop process and the reasons of the declining. Then I construct the dynamic model of the sustainable development in economic in Yichun, in order to find the reciprocities among the population, resource and economics to provide more scientific data to the deciders. From the model, we can get the sustainable mode in the forestry resource-based cities. In the meanwhile, I introduce the System Dynamics to the research on the economic sustainable development in the forestry resource-based city, which introduce a new method to the area.The characteristic of the System Dynamics is that it analyzes the problem from its structure. The principle of it is that the structure decides the function. This paper analyzes the system structure of the economic sustainable development in Yichun, draws the causal loops of the system, draws the flow diagram of the system, and then input the equations of the variables. The initial data of the model is the data of 2000. The constant variables and the auxiliary variables are decided by the means of equal, trend extrapolation, one variable regression and more variables regression. The building of the model uses the software —Vensim, which has many lookups to help. After finishing the building of the model, I run the modle time and time again, then I can be sure that the model is well-built. I check the model through the comparing the reality data to the simulating data. In the paper, I write down the data 2002, 2003 and 2004. From the compare, I can conclude that the modle could simulate the real word well and it can show the trend of the economic development in Yichun and the relationship between these variables.In this paper, I get a few modes of the economic development in Yichun by changing the variables that has effections with other variables and combinating them together. I mainly probe in three modes: the natural development, the high speed development and the sustainable development. In the end, I give out some methods and strategies to keep the sustainabledevelopment in Yichun, as the result of my analysis and other Researchers work.