Research On Sustainable Development Of Fujian Province Based On Eecological Footprint Model

Sustainable development is the eternal theme of human’s survival and development,and the choice of history. How to quantitatively measure the sustainability of a regionis vital in reasonably exploitation of resource and coordinated development of socialeconomy. In2002, the State Environmental Protection Administration announcedFujian as pilot province of ecological construction and Fujian is also elected as thefirst Eco-civilization Demonstration Area around the country by State Council inMarch,2014. With the growth of population, the speeding of urbanization andindustrialization, Fujian faces the growing contradiction among society, economy andecological development when achieving the rapid economic development though.Correct understanding of the sustainability of Fujian has significance not only inguiding Fujian’s construction of an ecological province, but also in the study ofsustainability of Western Straits Economic Zone.This paper chooses the popularecological footprint model to explore Fujian’s sustainability, which syntheticallyassess the sustainability by analyzing the balance of the demand of the economy andthe supply of the ecology. First, we measure the ecological footprint and ecologicalcapacity of Fujian from static and dynamic respective; and by combining relatedindex, this paper finds out that the its demand of consumption is surpassing thesupply of ecological system, which is unsustainable provincially. Fujian’s ecologicaltension index is rising from slightly-unsafe level (level3) in2000to less-securitylevel (level4) in2012, which means that the ecological pressure is enlarging. Second,we make a forecast on its sustainability in future by using the Gray Forecast ModelGM（1,1）and the result show that by2010, the ecological footprint per capita inFujian would rise to3.4862hm2with the ecological capacity rising to0.4600hm2, theecological deficit rising to3.0262hm2and ecological pressure index rising to1.35.These data mean that Fujian’s sustainability in future is dire and it would facegrowing ecological pressure if it would continue the economic growth mode ofdevelopment. Finally, combining the current situation and the prediction as well as the actual situation of Fujian’s economy and society, we offer some suggestion inFujian’s lowering the ecological footprint and ecological deficit and achievingsustainability, including controlling the population and improving the quality of it,more science and technology input and raising the efficiency of land using,transforming the mode of economic growth and optimizing industrial structure,establishing assessment, warning and compensation mechanism of ecologicalfootprint and so on.