Research On The Model Of Technology Foresight Based On Patent Map And TRIZ And Its Application In The CBM Mining

With the consecutive development of national economy, the pace of technological change becomes faster and faster, the technological progress play an important role in the development of social economy, and the technology innovation is paid more attention by the country. High investment and low conversion of technological innovation are important factors of technical progress, so that many of the technical innovations are not the need of economic and social development, which cannot bring significant benefits for them, which is a result of the innovation direction uncertainty.The determination of direction is the precondition of technological innovation. Technology foresight can clear the direction of technical innovation through analyzing the existing technologies and the factors affecting technology development, and grasping the development trend of technologies. Patent is the earner of technology, the analysis of which can provide support for technology foresight. Patent analysis tools mainly have two:patent map and TRIZ. Patent map can provide powerful information support for technology foresight in the form of charting to mine the patent data such as market demand, technical barriers, research emphasis, etc; TRIZ can show clearly direction of technology development through analyzing and confirming the current technical status, evaluating the evolution of technology life cycle, and predicting the development trend. Therefore, patent map and TRIZ are applied to technology foresight in this paper to seek a kind of high efficient, comprehensive, accurate foresight model, which is of great significance in the technological innovation of our country.The main content of this paper is as follow.Firstly, describe the correlation theories of technology foresight, patent map and TRIZ, qualitatively analyze the correlation of patent map and technology foresight, the correlation of TRIZ and technology foresight and the correlation of three, and show that applying patent map and TRIZ to technology foresight can make it objective, reasonable and accurate, which lays the theoretical foundation for the construction of technology foresight model.Secondly, In terms of the field of technology foresight, put forward a new model of technology foresight based on patent map and TRIZ according to the feasibility of applying patent map and TRIZ to technology foresight, and analyze the core idea, implementation steps, and the specific content, which lays foundation for the application of technology foresight in the field of coal bed gas mining.Thirdly, the model of technology foresight is applied in the field of coal bed gas mining. Based on analyzing the current situation of coal bed gas mining, its technology patents are analyzed by patent map and TRIZ, and the key technology and expert group of technology foresight are determined. Finally, the market Delphi method is used to do questionnaire survey, and the results were statistically analyzed.The study is mainly from the angle of theory, innovatively applying the combination of patent map and TRIZ to technology foresight to research the model of technology foresight based on patent map and TRIZ, which effectively improves the precision of technology foresight results and enriches the theoretical system of technology foresight. This model is applied to coal bed gas mining. On the one hand, it can guide the independent innovation of coal bed gas mining technology by clearing the direction of coal bed gas mining technology innovation and promoting the reasonable allocation of innovation resources; on the other hand, it can improve the level of coal bed gas mining technology innovation, develop more suitable for our country’s coal bed gas mining technology, reduce the gas disasters to ensure the safety of coal production, lower greenhouse gas emissions to response to the call of national energy conservation and environmental protection.