Empirical Analysis Between Logistics Development And Economic Growth In China

Productivity is the original force for economic development. One of key index for measuring productivity is "total factor productivity" (TFP, in brief). In the recent 20 years, our economy has gained a very fast growth, and the industry of logistics has also developed swiftly. The industry of logistics has become one of fundamental parts in our economy and played more and more important role. The relationship between the development of logistics and economic growth has increasingly become a hot topic for many researchers. In this thesis, we study the dynamic relationship between them based on the view of TFP. It provides an inner mechanism on how the logistic can affect the growth of our economy. Following the literatures, we construct four indices to describe the development of logistic in China, which are the total amount of social logistics (WLA), the ratio of total cost of social logistics to GDP (C2G), the revolving quantity of freight (HYZ) and the adding value of the logistics (WLC). Using the date from 1990 to 2009, we adopt the time series analysis and linear regression methods to investigate the dynamic relationship between TFP and the development of logistics in China from the views of TFP and the growth rate of TFP. The empirical results show that, the development of logistics is helpful to raise the level of TFP in the same stage. And then the rising of TFP promotes further the growth of economy. Therefore, we find an inner micro-mechanism on how logistic push economy ahead. In the final part of this thesis, we give the conclusion and some policy advices.