Analysis And Forecasting And Monitoring Of Dalian Eco-Tech Development Zone Real Estate

In recent years, with the rapidly development of economy, the real estateof China is beginning to develop, occupies an increasingly important position in the national economy, and even become the economic pillar industry. But in China, the study of the real estate started lately for and much of them attentions to the domestica city such as beijing, shanghai, shenzhen, compared to numerous middle-sized and small city. So the paper focus on Dalian Eco-Tech Development Zone, tries to analyze the laws and development trend of its real estate, provides the data support to its future development strategies to make it develop in a health and stead wayt and as a result of the practical significance.This paper is based on macroeconomic warning theory with comprehensive consideration the real estate theory and law of development, analyses and monitors and forecasts the real estate of the Dalian Eco-Tech Development Zone, make up the vacancy of empirical research of its real estate industry under the new situation,comprehensively use the componential analysis and grey prediction models gm (1,1), a method of monitor and forecast to study. The result of empirical research shows that since 2000 to 2009,all the value of warning degree of Dalian Eco-Tech Development Zone the industry are in a normal area, and increased gradually, and the results of the next three years showed that the real estate development will be in a tepefy state.The full text of this paper has five sectionsThe first section is introduction, represents the study significance and its background, reviews the documentary research in and out,then explains the method and content.The second section is related to monitoring and forecasting theory, then choose the method this paper used, that is the componential analysis and grey prediction models gm (1,1) for monitoring and forecasting.The third section is the analysis of development environment of Dalian Eco-Tech Development Zone real estate, analyzes and explains the basic environment and the real estate relevant factors.The fourth section is empirical research. Using the componential analysis and grey models to forecast the dalian eco-tech development zone real estate in the next 3year's.The last section is the conclusion of the paper. Review findings, and issues related to government regulation on the macroscopic policy recommendations, prospect the further research on the future.Over the paper shows that the method, comprehensive using the componential analysis and grey models to monitor and forecast, is feasible.We can evaluate, analyze, monitor and forecast the real estate development of the Dalian Eco-Tech Development Zone.The result of the paper has reference value to government policy makers and social invester.