Study On Real Estate Early-warning Of Dalian City

The real estate now is playing more and more important role in Chinese economics with its development. There are so many problems in this field, e.g, the difference between supply and demand in some regions, disequilibrium of markets, overabundant companies, non-planned building, quick rise of price and investment and redundant houses. For the reasons above, it's necessary to set up the early-warning system of real estate, from the respect of government management, which favors the supervision activities of real estate companies, guarantees the benefits of consumers, collocates the national resources rationally, assists the government to make decision and eventually promotes the healthy development of real estate industry.This article is based on the theory of early-warning theory of macroeconomic and has further discussion about current methodologies of early-warning system of real estate. Combining the characteristics of the periodically fluctuation of real estate market, it researched to build the structure of early-warning model of real estate. This article takes comprehensive simulation method as main line that early-warning system design. Using principal component analysis we get the weight and contribute rate of different index. Different early-warning index comprehend the comprehensive early-warming index of Real Estate. This article also takes index smooth method to forecast different early-warning index.The establishment of real estate early-warning system discussion in the paper will provides a much clearer view for people to understand the working mechanism of early-warning system, and is of great realistic and theoretical significance of the practice in real estate market.