The Analyse To The Influencing Factors Of Urban Resident's Housing Choice And Housing Demand In Our Country

Housing is an important issue about the people's livelihood. With the rapid development of real estate market for over a decade, housing consumption behavior has become one of the issues that get the most attention of government and developers. The studies on housing consumption behavior are not much and the data used is not updated, difficult to reflect the status quo of Chinese city housing consumption. Therefore, research on the housing consumption will have important theoretical sense and practical value.Based on previous studies, the paper classifies housing type into own build house, rent house and commodity house. Then, housing choice model contains household characteristic factors and organization factors. The household characteristic factors include age, marital status, household scale (number of children), household average income, educational level, non-agricultural business. Organization factors include residence, unit character and work experience (working year). The own build house is taken as control group. The sample is classified into sample of own build house, sample of rent house and sample of commodity house according to the housing type. Referring to Shufen Wang (2007) which uses housing area as measurement of consumption, the paper establishes and estimates three different consumption functions of housing type. The modified method of sample selection based on polynomial logit model is used in the modeling.The object of the study is the urban dweller, of which the data comes from CGSS (2006). The related variables are determined according to previous studies and theoretical analysis. There are 2232 observations without inappropriate variables. The main conclusions of the empirical study are as follows.1. Compared with own build house, the selection of rent house is obviously influenced by household annual income, residence, educational level, work experience (working year), marital status, non-agricultural business, children number. The variables of age and company type are not significant. Compared with own build house, the selection of commodity house is obviously influenced by household annual income, age, residence, educational level, non-agricultural business, children number, unit character, work experience (working year), marital status. The p-value of F statistics is 0.0000 in the significance test, indicating that the model is highly significant and can describe the housing selection behavior.2. Results of study on housing consumption indicate that house price, age, marital status, household scale (children number), household average income, educational level, non-agricultural business, residence, unit character, work experience (working year) have significant influence on housing consumption of urban dweller. The significance of different factors for different house type is shown as follows.(1) Price elasticity of housing consumption for own build house, rent house and commodity house is low, implying that house is the necessity for dwellers in present real estate market. Price elasticity of urban dwellers for own build house, rent house and commodity house is 0.2132,0.12367 and 0.0719 respectively. The price elasticity for commodity house is the lowest. Besides satisfying the living demand, one house owned by dweller can bring much psychological hint that the house owner has higher social status and steady economic conditions. This can be taken as an intrinsic reason for the high house price.(2) Totally saying, income elasticity of housing consumption is inelastic. The income elasticity of housing consumption for own build house and commodity house is negative,-0.0126 and -0.1557 respectively. Although the income elasticity of housing consumption for own build house is not significant, it is implied that the housing demand of urban dwellers who have own build house or commodity house will decrease as the income increases. By contrast, the income elasticity for commodity house owner is greater than that of own build house owner, implying that the wealth effect of commodity house owners is obvious. From the income elasticity of housing demand, the paper obtains the similar results as that in previous studies which use other articles of consumption to measure real estate wealth effect. The results prove that there exists real estate wealth effect for urban dwellers.However, the income elasticity of housing consumption for the rent house is 0.0809, indicating that the expenditure on housing demand will increase as the income increase. Totally saying, the increase of income of own build house owners and commodity house owners will not expand the consumption on house, while the increase of income of tenant will bring more consumption on house and decrease expenditure on other articles of consumption. So the urban dwellers can be classified into three groups:peasants in the juncture of urban and rural area, rich man in the city, middle class,migrant workers and college graduate in city. The social structure shows a dumbbell-shape with greater weight in the two poles and less weight in the middle part. Housing issue has gradually become one important reason for the increasing gap between rich and poor.(3) Besides house price and household income, residence, educational level, unit character, work experience, marital status and children number have significant influence on housing consumption. The variables show specific significance on housing consumption of different house type.