The Research On The Situation Of The Supply And Demand As Well As Trend Of The Development In The Electricity Industry In China

Electricity is the important energy to the national economy. Because electricity is the most accurate and cleanest secondary energy which can be made use of controlling at time and quantity available time, and quantity to make use of, and can implement conversion with all the energy mutually. Therefore, electricity has become essential in modern society, which is used throughout the national economy, society and people's lives'various fields. The power industry is the basic industry of the national economy, so before the national economy develops, the power industry must do. However, the problem of supply and demand imbalance can not be a good solution in China's power industry. In recent years, our country has taken many measures, for example, increasing the installed capacity, regional networking and so on. Finally, we succeed to balancing the supply and demand almost in the aggregate, but the seasonal, regional power shortages still occurred. Therefore, forecasting the situation of the supply and demand in the power industry, has important significance in theory and policy. Based on the analysis of the current situation in the power industry, this paper predicts Chinese future power demand and supply, with the way of qualitative analysis combined with initiative analysis and the way of theoretical analysis combined with empirical analysis. The mainly contents are follows:1. Analysis of supply and demand situation in the Power Industry. Since its inception, particularly in recent years, our power industry has developed rapidly, and achieved a balance between power supply and demand basically. At the electricity demand, total demand was increasing, and the proportion of the electricity demand of the primary industry and the Secondary industry for the entire demand was declining. Comparatively, the proportion of the demand of the tertiary industry and urban and rural residents was rising. Such changes were caused by many factors, for example, the level and structure of economic development, electricity, the total population and the improvement of people's living standards and energy policies of the adjustment, etc. At the electricity supply, the power supply capacity was improving, and the power structure was still dominated by thermal power, with the water electricity, and nuclear power developing.2. In the short run, the electricity demand is influenced by the seasons, so the short-term electricity demand can be predicted in use of the quarterly forecasting model. While in the long term, the electricity demand is driven by many factors without a stable trend, to build the multiple linear regression prediction model, involved the GDP, the population and the time, is right.3. By analyzing the recent national energy policy and the future electricity planning, we can see, our country will reduce the proportion of thermal power, focus on hydropower development and exploit the nuclear power and other new energy power generation properly. On the supply aggregate, due to the substantial increase in the total installed capacity, the oversupply situation will appear.4. Study on the strategy of the contradiction of the supply and demand in the electric power industry. To analyze the situation of the supply and demand of the electric power industry in the future, including short,medium and long term, and propose the corresponding countermeasures.