Research On The Dynamic Management Mode Of Government's Financial Expenditure For Quasi-PPP Projects

In order to fill the gap of government budget caused by the rapid construction of infrastructure projects,Chinese government has adopted a series of policies to promote the PPP project since 2013.Although in the short term,it can reduce the government's investment in public projects and alleviate the financial pressure of local governments by PPP model.But for quasi-PPP projects,social capital cannot get reasonable profit from operating income of projects,therefore government should provide additional funding for.The project cycle of PPP is too long,the fiscal expenditure is strongly influenced by external factors,and these factors change frequently,so fiscal expenditure is uncertain.At different stages of the project,these factors will change,thus the government carry on the larger government debt risk.The paper defines the scope of quasi-operational infrastructure projects,analyzes these projects' characteristics,compares the advantages and disadvantages of different compensation models,analyzes the scope of these model's application,sums up the current prospective business types and characteristics of PPP projects,and analyzed input methods and principles of finance expenditure of every model.In this paper,three main fiscal expenditure factors of PPP projects are studied.Combining the calculation formulas of these three factors,the main factors that affect fiscal expenditure can be found out.The paper analyzes the reasons why various factors affecting fiscal spending would changes in different stages of the project.According to different reasons,these factors can be divided into controllable factors and risk factors.The paper uses cause-effect diagram to analyse the relationship among various factors,use stock-flow diagram to analyse mathematical function relationship among various factors,use Vensim PlE software to build the system dynamics(SD)model of fiscal expenditure.The model can calculate the government's fiscal expenditure under different values,and the impact of different factors on fiscal expenditure can also be calculated by sensitivity analysis.Based on the SD model,the paper constructs a dynamic management model of government financial expenditure,which can calculate the change of annual financial expenditure amount when various factors change.Combining with factors affecting the change reason,In the case of financial sustainability,helps the government make rational decisions and give suggestions on risk supervision.Shenyang underground pipe gallery(south canal section)project as an example,sets actual data into the model,uses SD model to analyses sensitivity,uses the dynamic management model of government's financial expenditure to help the government to make reasonable decisions.