The Analysis And Evaluation Of Danlian Urban Carrying Capacity

In recent years, based on China's urban development strategy, Chinese urbanization level continue rising, urbanization rate has reached 46.6% in 2009 and China's urbanization will speed up in the future 5-10 years. As the expansion of the city and the rapid growth of the urban population, it brings a series of problems such as resource shortage, urban congestion, environmental pollution and so on. So the Urban pressure will be much more serious. Dalian is the deputy provincial city and the state plan in China, it is also the one of 14 coastal cities. Dalian as an important coastal port is the main northeast China in Liaoning province, is an important foreign portal northeast of international shipping center, international logistics centers and regional financial center. Since the 1990s, Dalian economy development trend in GDP is good, maintained double-digit growth rate. By 2010, Dalian started to promote the overall domain of urbanization, expanding the development strategy of Dalian crossing space, make great efforts to realize the leaping development goal of science. However, Dalian wants to realize the domain of urbanization must depend on the urban carrying capacity, with the sustainable development theory as guidance, but not be explored blindly and utilize the resources to reduce the future urban development space of Dalian. At the same time, the development of Dalian is also facing many factors:freshwater resources shortage, Land resources limited, urban construction land nervous, the number of motor vehicle increase sharply, road infrastructure construction lagging, serious traffic jams and Sulfur dioxide is the primary air pollutants, the frequency of acid rain is rising year by year. In order to realize the domain of urbanization, it is very necessary to research urban carrying capacity to promote the sustainable development of Dalian.On the basis of the related studies both at home and abroad, this paper from the angle of the hardware to research the urban carrying capacity of Dalian.The four hardware elements:the water resources carrying capacity,land transport capacity, traffic capacity and environmental carrying capacity. I collected statistics from two aspects that both a single element carrying capacity and the comprehensive to analyse the change trend about the nearly ten years urban carrying capacity of Dalian city and the related warning analysis. Considering the statistical data of quantitative and the availability of information, this paper only from the aspect of hardware carrying capacity. This paper selected 12 indexes from the four hardware factors:water, land, traffic and environmental which influenced the urban carrying capacity of Dalian and collected the statistical data from 2000 to 2009 years. Firstly, using analytic hierarchy process to weight the indexes and build a comprehensive evaluation model for urban carrying capacity of Dalian to score and describe the trend. Then, on the basis of the existing research and the related evaluation criteria of warning analysis to analyse Dalian urban carrying capacity. At the same times, on the current situation of Dalian city carrying to forcast the future development situation properly. Finally, according to the results of analysis of Dalian city, put forward to ascend the development strategies.Through an empirical study found that the urban carrying capacity scored lower and the urban carrying load condition is poor in the nearly 10 years of Dalian. The score of Dalian urban carrying capacity trend was reduced firstly and rised then, so we could forcast that there are a large development space in the future. Just about the four main hardware factors, the score of water resources carrying capacity is low, scoring in the state of crisis. There are obvious trend that the land capacity score was rising, load condition from crisis condition to general condition. Traffic capacity score shows ascendant trend, but it is not high overally and in the state of crisis. Environmental carrying capacity scored very low and in crisis condition. In the four influenced factors of Dalian urban carrying capacity, the environmental bearing capacity becomes the lowest score board. Dalian comprehensive urban carrying capacity is restricted by the environmental carrying capacity. The environmental bearing capacity is a bottleneck in the development of Dalian. Through the analysis of the situation in Dalian, along with the rapidly expanding urban population, water quantity, water pressure will be sustained growth more and more serious. The land of urban construction level rising and land resources improving the contradiction of supply and demand. The number of motor vehicle increase sharply, parking space insufficient, road congestion obviously increased.Environmental pollution degree will also be much more serious. Based on the above analysis, this paper puts forward some promotion strategys of single element carrying capacity.