Research On Contrasting The Potential Development Of Wind Power And Thermal Power

In China,70% of electricity consumption was generated by thermal power units.In the condition of coal prices rising constantly, wind power is becoming a kind of renew energy source which cost a little. In addition, people are increasing the degree of concern on air pollution, acid rain, carbon dioxide emissions and other environmental damage factors. The Chinese government has gradually increased interest in renewable energy, and hopes to get electricity by using of harmless energy for environment and society. Although wind power is still in the primary stage in China, high stand-alone cost and unstable factors are still bottlenecks of wind power. In this background, this article analyzes the thermal power, wind power generation unit cost and the future trends in the unit cost of wind power which also takes into account of relevant policies, regulations and subsidies for wind power costs. In calculating the cost of conventional thermal power process, this article predicts the future cost of thermal power combined with the development trend of coal prices. And the results are corrected with the current coal prices. This article uses the sensitivity analysis method to analyze the wind power price and thermal price model and find out the most sensitive factors. The factors are the wind power build cost and the electric coal prices. After that, this passage gets the further coal prices and the price trends with the coal price forecasting model. The prices correct with the modern coal prices. This article begins to analyze the wind power and thermal power unit prices with the relevant codes and principles.It also forcasts the wind power cost trends and the effects of the relevant principles. This passage caculates the thermal power costs to combine with the coal price trends.The caculates results analyze the area of rich wind resourses but of high coal prices.At last, it get the conclusion of the contract the potential development of wind power and thermal power. There are many uncertain factors in China's current pricing mechanism which will weaken the risk controlling ability of investors.So this situation can not attract more investors to join this relatively young industry. The current policy has resulted in the price of wind power variability and uncertainty. This article will provide a reference basis for wind power development.