Analysis Of The Effect Of Carbon Tarriffs On China's Export Trade By Using CGE Model

China is the biggest developing country in the world, but its economy depends greatly on energy consumption, investment, and exports. On the the background of low carbon economy, many developed countries propose carbon tariff to make up for the loss of their product in the competition on the international market. Carbon tariff policy is against the basic principles of UNFCCC and WTO, but may apply to the WTO general exception clause. If carbon tariff policy is implemented in these countries, China's exports may be seriously affected. Therefore, we should assess the impact prudently, in order to seek effective response.This paper studies the effect of carbon tariffs on China's export trade in the international trend of low carbon economy by using CGE model which is an important policy analysis tool. This article constructs a social accounting matrix for the economic analysis, on the basis of it we investigate the effect of carbon tariffs by changing export tariff rate, and then propose some suggestions. The whole dissertation is organized in 4 chapters. The structure arranges as follows.Chapter 1 is the background introduction,which illustrates something about carbon tariffs and the theoretical basis of CGE models and reviews the relevant research on CGE models. Then the purpose of the research is briefly introduced.The second chapter is a general analysis of the carbon tariff, including the study of the substance of carbon tariffs, the cause of developed countries imposing carbon tariffs, then the qualitative analysis of the likely impact from both positive and negative aspects.The third chapter is the focus of this article. Firstly, we build a CGE model for Chinese open economy based 1-2-3 model, and then identify exogenous variables and endogenous variables. To solve the CGE model, we constructed a social accounting matrix, as a benchmark data set, which is a reflection of China's macro economy in 2007.? In addition,the calibration process is discussed in this section. Finally, we make a policy simulation analysis by changing the export tariff rates resulting from carbon tariffs.The fourth chapter is the conclusion and policy recommendations, on the basis of the third part. We get a summary of the impacts of carbon tariffs on China's export trade, and then propose some strategies as a response of these impacts from the international arena and the domestic sphere.