The Fluctuations Of Oil Prices And Valuation Of China's Listed Companies

As a strategic resource, oil is an important strategic material for China's sustainable economic development. In recent years, a variety of factors caused the international oil price's frequent fluctuations at high prices. With China's rapid economic development, China's dependence on foreign oil increased year by year. The domestic oil supply and demand has also become increasingly prominent. And the international oil price fluctuations'impact on the industry is also rowing year by year. From the microscopic point of view, oil prices'fluctuations affect the cost of production; from a macro perspective, it affects the coordination of the national industrial development. It is very significant for China's oil-related industry's management and how to improve the corporate value of listed companies by studying the international oil price volatility on China-related industries and the impact of performance of listed companies and then proposing appropriate countermeasures.Based on the results of previous studies, this paper first analyzes the status of the international oil price fluctuations and international economic factors. Then it analyzes the causes of the international oil price volatility from the supply and demand, the dollar exchange rate and other point of view. Secondly, this article empirically analyzes the extent of Chinese factors' influence on oil price fluctuations. The result is that the international oil price will rise by 7.18 percentage points when China's imports of oil rise by one percentage point. Thirdly, this paper uses the input-output analysis quantifies the oil price fluctuations' influence on related industry's product's cost and prices. Then it analyzes the oil price fluctuations'transmission effect on related industries by Leontief matrices. And it reclassifies the input-output table, isolates the direct consumption coefficients and indirect consumption coefficients from the input-output table. Fourth, this paper applies the calculating model empirically analyzes the oil price fluctuations'influence on China's macroeconomic and related listed companies' performance. From the above empirical analysis this paper obtains the results as followings. China's GDP will rise by 0.32% when international oil prices increase by one percentage point. Sinopec and other listed companies will reach the max internal rate of return when the international oil price reaches about 60 dollars per barrel.Finally this paper advises some suggestions from the following several aspects:China's oil group should strengthen domestic exploration effort, and actively explore foreign market; The Chinese government should deepen the reform of oil price forming mechanism and formulate price forming mechanism; listed companies like CNPC and Sinopec should strive for international petroleum pricing and strengthen the international energy cooperation.