Disscussion On Political Risks Of Current Sino-Iranian Oil Cooperation

In 2003, China replaced Japan as the world's second largest oil consumer and importer. Iran is one of the major oil suppliers of China, every year China imports a lot of oil from Iran. With the rapid and sustained economic growth, China's energy need is soaring. Iran is the important battlefield of China's export-oriented energy strategy. Since the early of the 21st century, Sino-Iranian energy cooperation has made great progress, but the risk is also growing. This paper study the potential risks of oil cooperation between China and Iran from the political point of view, which has important academic and practical significance in promoting sustained and stable Sino-Iranian oil cooperation and ensuring our energy security.The thesis is divided into following seven parts:Chapter One:Introduction. (1)The research on Iran's energy investment and trade environment; the research on Iranian nuclear issue and energy diplomacy; the research on the pros and cons of Sino-Iranian energy cooperation and the evaluation methods about domestic and foreign political risks.(2) the background; the significance; characteristics and innovation; research methods and technical routes.Chapter two:Survey of Iranian oil resources. This chapter mainly discusses Iran's oil reserves, the distribution, and oil production capacity.Chapter three:The necessity of Sino-Iranian petroleum cooperation and the existing problems. They are as follows:Sino-Iranian petroleum cooperation has complementary advantages; the combination of investment and trade promotes the expanding of cooperation; there is instability in Sino-Iranian oil cooperation; the trade forms and the settlement methods.Chapter four:Discussion of the evaluation methods about the political risks of Sino-Iranian oil cooperation. This chapter mainly includes evaluation methods, evaluation goal, comprehensive evaluation model, evaluation index and its construction principle and the weight of each index.Chapter Five:The political risk analysis of current Sino-Iranian oil cooperation. The analysis is from three sides:Iranian domestic political risk, international political risk and the risk of national relationship change.Chapter six:The suggestions to cope with the risks. Put forward the suggestions to cope with the political risks and ensuring national energy security from China's perspective. Establish the risk warning mechanism. Formulate special strategies for Iran. Strengthen various forms of exchanges between China and Iran, increase mutual understanding. The government, large state-owned enterprises and private enterprises unite in policy, capital, technology and information to improve the international competitiveness of China. Actively expand other oil sources besides Iran. Speed up the establishment of strategic oil reserve system. Accelerate the reform, exploration and development of domestic oil fields and actively develop and utilize the new energy, seek substitutes, and energetically build energy-saving society at the same time.Chapter seven:Conclusion and discussion.The main conclusions of the paper are as follows:First, Iran as a sensitive state of current international community, the international political risk and the risk of national relationship change have a great influence on Sino-Iranian oil cooperation, the influence of Iranian domestic political risk is relatively small.Second, Iranian nuclear issue, change of Sino-Iranian relationship, the sanctions of U.S. and Europe, international diplomatic isolation and the world powers' competition for the control of resources are the main political challenges of Sino-Iranian oil cooperation at present. Energy geopolitics is the character of modern society, Iran becomes the international focus. The discussion of political risks of Sino-Iranian oil cooperation has a close relation with Iranian abundant energy resources and its energy diplomacy. Energy closely intertwines with national political relationship and national interests, the trend is unexpected, the assessment and resolution of the risk are very difficult. Therefore, to maintain the stable development of Sino-Iranian oil cooperation, the concerned departments and industry of Chinese government need to pay attention to the political risk, establish risk warning mechanism, making flexible policies bases on reasonable judgments and analysis of the risks, the most important is in line with Iranian energy diplomacy based on maintaining the normal relationship between China and other big powers. Third, Iran's religious and cultural spirit, nationalism and turbulent domestic and Middle East political situation have a great influence on the potential risk of Sino-Iranian oil cooperation. In a certain period and condition, the risk of these factors may be enhanced and become dominant factors which influence the petroleum cooperation between China and Iran. Therefore, these risks must be paid special attention.The assessment of international oil cooperation is a highly comprehensive scientific issue, which involves different kinds of risks assessment such as political, economic, market and that among different countries. This paper evaluates political risks of Sino-Iranian oil cooperation tentatively, which tries to supply a useful research base for evaluating the political risks of oil cooperation between China and other oil-producing countries.Using Delphi method and analytic hierarchy process (AHP), combing the actual situation of Sino-Iranian oil cooperation and Iranian political climate, the paper comprehensively analyzes the political challenges which Sino-Iranian oil cooperation facing.The research tries to supply useful information for handling Sino-Iranian national relation and ensuring the stability of Sino-Iranian oil cooperation and supply a reference for the policy making of government and enterprise. Therefore, the paper has certain theoretical and practical significance.