Oil And Gas Cooperation Between China And Iran: A Study Of The Risks In The 21th Century

The first 20 years of the 21st is an important period of strategic opportunity for China's development, thereinto the period of the eleventh five-year plan is the crucial period for China to comprehensively build a relatively affluent society. But economic development will inevitably bring about an increase in energy consumption, therefore the period of the eleventh five-year plan is also a expanding period for the gap of domestic energy supply and for the import of oil and gas.Iran is OPEC's second largest oil producer, provided with 10% of the world's proved oil reserves and 26.6 trillion cubic meters of proved natural gas reserves. It accounts for 15.2% of total world reserves and it is the world's second largest after Russia's natural gas power. The potential of developing and utilizing oil-gas resources for Iran is great. At present, the oil-gas cooperation between China and Iran is in full swing, but there are many risks, such as: the turbulence of international oil market, the Iran nuclear issue, the relation between China and U.S., the energy confrontation between China and Japan, and so on. The difficulties during the oil-gas cooperation between China and Iran are how to ensure that China will get the Iranian's oil and gas resources without compromising China's national interests. As a result, the research on the risks of oil and gas cooperation Between China and Iran in the 21st Century is very important for China to better promote the cooperation and ensure the energy security and achieve China's national interests. The research has a certain theoretical value and practical significance.It is divided into seven parts:Part Ⅰ: It accounts for the macro background of this research and the related research progress .it also accounts for the research methodology and research significance of this article.Part Ⅱ: The article expounds respectively the characteristics of Iranian oil and natural gas, and it discusses the strategic position of worldwide and the political and economic significance of Iranian oiland gas resources in 21st.Part III: The article introduces the status quo of the oil and gas cooperation between China and Iran, including cooperative manner, the size and effectiveness of cooperation. Sino-Iranian oil and gas cooperation is of great significance to both sides.Part IV: The article analyzes the risk factors of Sino-Iranian oil and gas cooperation in 21st with AHP methods. What's more, it finds out the primary factor and analyzes qualitatively every risk factor.Part V: The article appraises the risks of Sino-Iranian oil and gas cooperation with FHW (fuzzy gray matter-element space theory). The results show that Iran nuclear issue, the United States factor and the energy confrontation between Japan and China in Iraq are the uppermost risk factors of Sino-Iranian oil and gas cooperation. Especially, there is great potential risk on oil and gas transportation security and the United States factor and we should pay special attention on it. Clearly, we can not by pass the United States factor during the oil and gas cooperation between China and Iran.Part VI: The article puts forward some risk prevention measures for China during Sino-Iranian oil and gas cooperation aiming at the above results. Such as, We should strengthen the international strategic vision during the Sino-Iranian oil and gas cooperation;We should further implement the "go out" transnational oil business strategies;The government and enterprises must make efforts to create favorable conditions for competition in the market of Iranian oil and gas resources;We should carry out the diversification oil strategy to ensure China's energy security;We should establish new concepts of energy security and set up a multilateral security mechanism based on the oil and gas cooperation;We should promote the building of the "energy corridor" to ensure the safety of energy transportation;We should strengthen the intercommunion of the religion and the culture between the China and Iran.Part VII: The article summarizes the present risks and the potential risks during Sino-Iranian oil and gas cooperation. At the same time, it points out that China should consider taking the countermeasures (in particular the failure to take measures that should be taken), and it emphasizes the innovations of the analytical methods and the conclusions of this article.