Study On Monitoring And Warning System Of City Logistics Prosperity

With social development, the national economy has brought huge logistics demand. As a result, some cities has reoriented to be a national logistics center. Logistics industry planning has also been put into the city strategy. By greatly developing the logistics industry, city planners expect to enhance economic development, improve investment environment, attract foreign investment and release employment pressure. However, excessive growth may cause the imbalance between the supply and demand. It can also bring the failure or reaction of strategy. Therefore, by monitoring the scale of the industry development and predicting the trend of change, there can be a purpose to guide social investment in the logistics field, bring rational planning and construction of the logistics infrastructure, improve the logistics supply system and provide social logistics performance.In order to achieve the function of monitoring and early warning, the paper has brought the economic prosperity theory into the logistics industry and established a monitoring and warning system of urban logistics prosperity. Based on previous research, logistics prosperity index calculation, logistics prosperity signal model and warning model of artificial neural network have been combined together. First, logistics prosperity indicator system has been established. Then diffusion index and composite index have been applied into the logistics industry. Second, warning limit of the indicators has been calculated. Then the state of the indicators have been represented by the signal lights. And mathematically the single indicators have been synthesized into one logistics prosperity composite index. Finally, urban logistics industry trend has been forecast by artificial neural network. Based on the model design of the system, logistics industry of Beijing has been used as an empirical study. By comprehensive judgments and trend forecasting of the development of logistics industry, the double functions of the monitoring and warning system have been achieved. At last, the paper has given several references for the government and the enterprise to monitor the logistics industry and make reasonable decision.