| Dairy was a saving food,efficient and high relational industry,which played an important strategic position in China's national economy. It was positive to improving residents dietary structure,promoting adjustment of agriculture structure,increasing farmers' income and promoting economy sustainable development of agricultural and rural when dairy developed healthy. In recent years, the production of milk maintained a good momentum of development, new changes had taken place in the yield, the way, the size and structure and the storage volume of milk, general productivity had been further strengthened. However, there were still some problems in the production of milk in our country, the risk factors stand out: the increasing of the dairy farming costs, the decline of the compare effectiveness, the losses of some retail, selling the cattle and slaughter of the cattle, the imbalance of nutrition, the frequent disease of cow, the quality and safety incidents of the raw milk had occurred sometimes, seriously affecting the confidence of consumers for the national brands, the development of Professional Dairy Farmers Cooperative Organizations lags behind, farmers lack the right to speak,only passively accepting the price of raw milk and so on. In the future course of development, whether the China's dairy production can proceed smoothly, to a large extend, depending on the effective discovery and prevention of risk factors, therefore, it has an important significance to study and prevent the risk factors of milk production .The paper reviewed the production history of the dairy in our country comprehensively, analysised the production status and problems which existed in the dairy and desserted the risk factors which exist ed in the production of the diary. According to the characters of the diary risk factors ,the paper established the risk evaluation system which contained three levels which included target strata, criterion layer, index layer and 22 indexes which covered forage grass & feed,propagation and breeding,epidemic prevention,technology of feeding management,market of raw milk. In this paper each index of the risk factors were judged by the methods of AHP and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, threshold standa of dairy production risk assessment was divided into 5 level and extent of the production of risk was determined. we proposed the policy suggestion which was in order to guarantee the dairy healthy development,the prevention of the risk should be strengthed in forage grass & feed,propagation and breeding,epidemic prevention,technology of feeding management and market of raw milk by analysing risk management mode in developed dairy countries and proposing the successful experience.Through research, this paper drawed the following conclusions:First, this paper analysed series of specific indices of each risk factor by AHP, making it clear that for risk of forage grass & feed, the risk value of the eligible rate of feed, at 0.3074, was the highest; for risk of propagation and breeding, the risk value of the eligible rate of seeds, at 0.6499, wass the highest; for risk of epidemic prevention, the risk value of the the incidence of serious diseases, at 0.29258, was the highest; for risk of technology of feeding management, the risk value of the level of technology of feeding milk cows, at 0.42074, was the highest; besides, for risk of market of raw milk, the risk value of the eligible rate of raw milk, at 0.4458, was the highest. Second, with methods of AHP and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, this paper estimated the risk of Chinese dairy production, indicating that the resultant value of the risk reaches 74.94408, which was in a notable risk state;This paper showed that among all risk factors, forage grass & feed and epidemic prevention were noteworthy, both risk values of which exceed the resultant value (up to 80.36568 and 83.3156); propagation and breeding, technology of feeding management and market of raw milk have a lower risk but need more attention as well. |
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