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The Study Of Consumption Demand And Economic Growth's Relationship In Guangdong Province

Posted on:2012-05-19Degree:MasterType:Thesis
Country:ChinaCandidate:M Z MengFull Text:PDF
GTID:2189330338990623Subject:Statistics
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
The "troika", promoting economic growth, which includes consumption, investment and net exports, all have their features of each with in the development process of the macro-economic, and have played an important role: consumer demand, which is an important pillar of the economy's GDP, makes huge contribution in the economic development. The economic developing history and various types of empirical research show that consumer demand is driving economic growth most than other two elements of the "troika". Investment demand, whose rate in accounting for an economy's GDP is only less than consumer demand, although the volatility is slightly too large in terms of consumer demand, yet it is the lifeblood of the economy, the impetus of the industrial revolution, the development pace of the government macroeconomic regulation and control, an important tool for development. Net exports, although the proportion is only a little fraction of the GDP, it can take full advantage of the international consumer market, capital market to develop and expand its economy, effectively alleviate the employment pressure. After China's reform and opening up, whether the national or Guangdong Province's, the "troika" of these characteristics and the role are heavily.However, as we see that consumption, investment and net exports in their respective economic development plays an important role, we should know they all exist some deficiencies, especially the investment demand and net exports: their volatility is very large, easily affected by economic cycles, social and environmental factors, which sometimes gives the economy brought great distress and even lead to social unrest. The 2008 World Financial Crisis caused the world economy a huge impact is a clear example, and we all remember it today. Especially the foreign trade accounted is a large proportion of the overall economy of Guangdong, its impact is difficult to assess. Therefore, the analysis of consumer demand and economic growth's relationship in Guangdong Province, domestic demand gradually replacing foreign demand has a strong practical significance. This paper empirically research the consumer demand and the economic growth in Guangdong Province by sub-sector, sub-industry, attempting to analyze the various departments in the industry of Guangdong, the transmission mechanism of economic development, contribution, which makes the work more focused on the real economy, extremely more operating force policy recommendations. In this paper, firstly, we analyze the relationship and the conduction path between the consumer demand and the economic growth, and explore the path of it: consumer demand automatically generates favorable consumer demand growth and further cycle optimization and upgrades of economic structure and healthy development through the two paths "consumption demand→the total output→the initial investment→consumption demand " and "consumption demand→production→new consumer demand". Using the input-output analysis, we build the consumer demand and economic growth relational model. With the relevant information in Guangdong province as the data sources, we analyze the relationship between consumer demand and economic growth by using integration and the input-output analysis. Meanwhile, we compare it with the national research. The result shows that: in Guangdong Province, consumption demand's contribution to the economic growth is much more than investment demand's weather from the total or the efficiency. Specifically, the various departments and tertiary industries of the third sector's contribution to economic growth is significantly higher than the first, the second sector, and the most prominent of the third sector is the flow of trade and production and living services sections. Finally, based on the actual situation in Guangdong Province, we make two mainly ideas to promote the growth of consumer demand for improving the economic growth.
Keywords/Search Tags:Consumer demand, Economic growth, Cointegration, The input-output
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