The Research On China Export Impact Of Technical Barriers To Trade Based On PLS Regression Method

In recent years, WTO obtains the success on reducing the tariff. However, with maintaining the import and export management order, protecting domestic consumers'benefit, protecting ecological environment and the life and health of human beings and so on, Technical barriers to trade has became a new trade protection method. TBT has brought enormous obstacle to our country and other developing nations'foreign trade and has became the trade barrier that is the most covert and difficult to handle in the international trade. Under this circumstance, investigating the technical barriers to trade which we face and analyzing the impact of technical barriers to China's export trade have much theoretical and practical significance in correctly understanding technical barriers to trade,practically making use of them, striding across them and realizing the sustainable development of foreign trade.First, in this paper, we theoretical elaborate the conception of technical barriers to trade, and in-depth analyze its present situation that we face. Based on the analysis above, we qualitatively analyze the positive and negative impact of technical barriers to trade. Secondly, combining with other traditional factors, we adopt the partial least-squares regression to do a quantitative comparison study, using exports, export growth rate, industrial competitiveness and conventional industries exports as dependent variable. Then, We draw a conclusion: technical barriers to trade exert a negative influence on exports, export growth rate, industrial competitiveness and conventional industries exports, but the effects is not particularly large; compare with technical barriers to trade, the influence of traditional factors is bigger; fixed asset investment and science and technology are still strong driving forces for China's export and industrial competitiveness, while the affect of FDI decrease; China's exports, especially conventional industries exports depend too much on processing trade import, while processing trade import and FDI weaken the industrial competitiveness; the Trade pattern depending on processing trade import and FDI is also the main reason that our enterprises continuously encountered technical barriers to trade; the contribution of human capital to export and industry competitiveness is low; exchange rate exerts a negative influence on exports, industrial competitiveness and conventional industries exports. Finally, based on the analysis above, we put forward the corresponding policy implications.