Research On Urban Real Estate Early-Warning

Through analysis on the development of the real estate in our country,this paper points out the significance of real estate early-warning to the healthy development of the real estate.First, based on the Real Estate Cycle Theory, the Sustainable Development Theory and the Predicting Theory, this paper establishes the real estate early warning modle and studies the boundary and the weight of early-warning indices. Secondly,this article sets up two models to the comprehensive evaluation on the of the real estate early warning by means of the Index method and matter element analysis.At the same time,compared the two modles, matter element analysis is the better method of the comprehensive evaluation.At last,This paper makes pre-warning of the real estate by GM(1,1) Modle.The result of the demonstrative analys is in accordance with the real estate development in Fuzhou,this indicates that the real early-warning modle establishing in the research is feasible,with full theory analysis and good practical value ,provides scientific foundation for guiding and controlling the real estate markets.