An Analysis On The Bubbles Of Shanghai Real Estate Price

Since intermediate stages of century 90's, under the promotion of many advantages factors such as the macroscopic economic environment and the government's vigorously propping up the housing industry, the housing industry develops rapidly in overwhelming majority regions, the housing investment, the areas developing and the areas completing continuously maintain growing. At the same time, housing price also rises fast for many years.With the rapid growth of nation's housing prices, housing investments, real estate loans and so on, the controversy of the health of the residential market and the existence of real estate bubble has become a hot topic in the community. And Shanghai's housing price increases far in excess of the other cities. The "Shanghai phenomenon" in the real estate market is spectacular and Shanghai has become the focus of the controversy of the real estate bubbles. Then is there bubble in Shanghai's real estate market? How much is there? Will it burst? When bursts? This is a very important question in the industry fields and the academic circles at present.This article selected Shanghai, the most representative city in recent years to conduct the real estate bubble research. The paper begins with the correlated theories of the real estate bubble, profits from the domestic and foreign correlated research results and the empirical bases, then analyzes and summarizes the characteristics of real estate industry as well as the harms of the real estate bubble, and in this foundation, analyzes the reasons and the mechanism of the formation of the real estate bubble.Because our country hasn't cancelled house allocation until 1998, so the history of the real estate market development is relatively short, the marketability degree is quite low, therefore, the real estate bubble research starts relatively late. At present, nobody has completely conducted the fundamental research of the real estate bubble and the method of measuring real estate bubble is extremely rare, which is unable to satisfy the needs of studying the real estate market. In overseas, there wasn't the research of the real estate bubble and the correlated data collection work until 1992 or 1993. Although there are many correlated theories, the unified model to measure the real estate bubble has not been formed at present. After analyzing the good and bad points of the research results, the article establishes linear return model of the actual prices of Shanghai real estate market, and, in this foundation, carries on the concrete analysis and computation of the bubble degree of Shanghai real estate market price from 1993 to 2004 year.