Research On Financial Early Warning Model Of Listed Companies And It's Empirical Analysis

This thesis analyzed and compared a domestic and international researchs concerning finance crisis firstly. Generally speaking, the financial crisis research mainly stresses on four point to find out the best estimate model, they are the scope of sample, when of the data, what kind of index sign, and what kind of model. In domestic, many people researched the theme, and they have also used many models, but at present there isn't a very effective forecast model established. This thesis combined qualitative analysis with quantitative analysis, and combined the theories analyzes with empirical analysis. The thesis carried on the qualitative analysis by the classics Logistic return model primarily, and made the AHP analysis as auxiliary, and two unified to judge the enterprise finance condition.This thesis has selected the data from 60 companies, from 2004 to 2006, which are 30 ones continuously goes on the market above for 3 years only then by ST for the first time, the other 30 ones continuously goes on the market naturally above for 5 years until now. The data of the healthy companies comes from 2003, and the data of the finance crisis companies comes from the th previous 3 years before it was putted into ST. These data is used to establish forecast model, finally also selected 4 companies respectively from two kinds of companies to examine the effect of the model.During the research process, to eliminate the different dimension influence, first I carried on the sample data to be standardized, and through normality examination, I discovered afterwards many financial data refuse to accept the normal distribution, therefore I chosen to the establish Logistic model, which needn' the sample accept the normal distribution. Similarly in order to eliminate the correlation and multiple linearity between the variables, I used the factor analytic method to carry on the variable withdraws the characteristic factor, and scored points, at last I used the factors as variables to enter the following Logistic model. The quantitative investigation result indicated this article establishes a useful model, to a certain extent, which can forecast the early financial crisis correctly.Completely using the quantitative analysis to judge the financial crisis condition of the enterprise , which is easy to neglect the energy stationary index, these targets similarly include massive information, they also can have the influence to the enterprise's financial condition, therefore this article used the AHP analysis method to the research the enterprise for several main stationary indices. Using various the...