The Study On Financial Crisis Early-warning System Based On Cash Flow Of The Listed Company In China

In the market orientated economy, enterprises, once established, it will facecompetition, and always in conflict of collapse and survival, development and atrophy.Companies must survive to make a profit and development, many companies from itestablished, thriving, to bankruptcy, looks like a "fast rewind effect ", actually is theresult of risk accumulated over a long period, because people lack the awareness of riskcrisis and prevention, ignoring the issues behind the crisis accumulated for a long period.Any crisis has a process of hidden, development, evolution, drawing near and showing,if not effectively prevent, control and defuse risks, will enable enterprises to suffersignificant losses, and even escape from bankruptcy and collapse. Among the manyfactors that lead the company to bankrupt, the financial crisis is the first to be affected.Financial crises make the enterprises go to decline, the interests of investors and otherstakeholders will be injured. In fact, the occurrence of the financial crisis is not asudden, it’s a gradual process.To set up a scientific financial crisis warning system todefuse a potential crisis have increasingly become the common concerns of thegovernment, investors, bond people and other stakeholders.This article first describes the research status of financial crisis, and then analyzesthe importance of the financial crisis warning research, introduced the performance ofthe financial crisis as well as its function and significance, then carry on the empiricalresearch on the basis of this, the sample data is the selection of financial statistics of42ST companies, according to the proportion of1:1matched sample,42normalcompanies are selected., according to the financial crisis early warning index systembased on cash flow, this paper make the significance test and correlation analysis,andthen use the factor analysis to extract the principal component factor, then use logisticregression analysis to establish the financial crisis warning model based on cash flow,finally to back to the generation of inspection and prediction of the model in theend,finally put forward the policy suggestions on the basis of the empirical research.The innovation of this paper is: although the domestic and foreign research onfinancial crisis early-warning have achieved fruitful results, but most of these studiesare based on accrual basis and the financial crisis early warning model is established onthe basis of the profit targets, profit targets are easy to be human, because its notcumulative, and cash flow is not easy to be whitewashed, therefore, from the perspective of cash flow to establish financial crisis warning model can better service tothe stakeholders of the enterprise.On the choice of research method, this paper carried on the thorough discussion,there is not the past T test, this paper use he mann-Whitney U test which are notrequired to meet the normal distribution assumption, also use factor analysis method tosolve the multicollinearity problems between variables, which on the basis of using themultiple logistic regression method to establish model.