Study On The Integrated Assessment System Of Land Resources Carrying Capacity For Chongming Island

This thesis reviewed the relative theories and methods of land assessment and land resources carrying capacity. Based upon the consideration of the complex relationships between the natural, social and economic factors, we established an integrated assessment system of land resources carrying capacity under the guidance of sustainable development and resources limitation, the system introduced a method which combined theory and demonstration with qualitative and quantitative analysis, and contained 3 hierarchies (e.g. target level, rule level and index level), 4 subsystems, which were water & soil resource subsystem, environmental qualities subsystem, social humanities subsystem and economy & technology subsystem, and 20 indices. Then, according to the assessment system, we set a 5-level assessment criterion to evaluate, compare and analyze the land resources carrying capacity of Chongming Island in different periods of current status(in 2005), near future(in 2010), medium-term(in 2015) and long-term (in 2020), respectively. Finally, we discussed theoretically and methodologically on the problems occurred in the course of building and applying the integrated assessment system, and also preliminarily gave some suggestions to optimize the land resources comprehensive carrying capacity of Chongming Island. The main results are as followed:(1) The weight for the 4 subsystems appeared to be that of Environmental qualities subsystem > Water & soil resources subsystem > Social humanities subsystem > Economy & technology subsystem, the values are 0.3134, 0.2436, 0.2403 and 0.2027, respectively.(2) The scores of land resources comprehensive carrying capacity of Chongming Island in different stages are: 0.1778 for the current status(in 2005), 0.3834 for the near future(in 2010), 0.4778 for the medium-term(in 2015) and 0.5691 for the long-term(in 2020), which response to the weak, lower, medium and medium level of carrying capacity in the 5-level assessment criterion.(3) The consensus results of 3 modeled scenarios demonstrate that the comprehensive carrying capacity of land resources for Chongming Island tends to be increased with time. The balance, stability and sustainable development of the land resources system depend on the interactions between the subsystems and the assessment indices.(4) In addition, considering the pros and cons of different assessment methods in practice, we introduce an assemblage-weighted evaluation method to offset the limitations of subjective and objective methods.Our integrated assessment system takes natural and socio-economic factors into account, and has proved to be an effective and robust tool for land resources carrying capacity assessment for Chongming Island, and can be applied to other cases in China. Meanwhile, the results also suggest the layouts, decisions and policies which have been made by the authorities are sound and reliable for the further "Eco-Island" construction and sustainable development for Chongming Island.