Research On Demand Forecasting And Supply Adjusting Of Inland Water Transportation Capacity

The development of transportation capacity plays an important role in economy of inland water transportation. As the reason of lacking of information and be affected by channels construction, port programming, goods quantity, inland water transportation system and so on, the inland water transportation market exists the unreasonable phenomenon of transportation capacity in our country .Therefore, based on actual problems and future trend, this thesis studies demand forecasting and supply adjusting on inland water transportation capacity, so as to meet the demand of the development in inland water transportation market. The study is crucial to the development of transportation market both in theory and realism.This thesis composed of four main parts that introduces the achievement of modern economical forecasting, system engineering and cybernetics, etc. into research on inland water transportation and carries out demand forecasting and supply adjusting on inland water transportation capacity.Firstly, this thesis outlines simply of inland water transportation capacity, points out the main problems existing in inland water transportation, states advantages of inland water transportation by comparative analyses on the features of different transportation modes, analyses and studies it's main influenced factors.Secondly, it states the knowledge of demand forecasting on transportation capacity: introuduces mathematics modles and uses these modles to forecast inland water transportation capacity of one province, and combines with the ships future development trend, society economy development, the present station and future plan on basic establishment of inland water transportation, and the development of freight and passenger transport. In addition, adjusts the above forecast consequence, so as to gives suggest to relative departments when they make development plan on ship.Thirdly, it outlines research on supply adjusting of inland water transportaton, analyses and studies mechanism of transportaton supply. From the three parts: establishment and collection on fund, using on fund, supervising on fund to study...